Predictions: Marquez-Pacquiao II

The Franchise says...

It's tough for me to pick any of Manny's fights simply because it's so difficult to take my rooting interest out of the equation (Disclaimer: All staff members of BoxingWatchers.com are part Filipino!). That being said, I was relieved when the first fight between these two turned out to be a draw, because I honestly thought Marquez had won the fight. That's how much he dominated the second half of the bout with his boxing skills.

What's changed to make me think the outcome will be different this time? For starters, I don't think there's any question Pacquiao's all-around game has improved. In the first half of the decade, Pac Man fought the same way every round. He came forward, threw a lot of punches, and his hand speed and power were usually too much for his opponents. His defense consisted of moving his head side to side while he advanced.

That's not the case today. While Manny's first instinct continues to be blasting his foes out of there, he's a little smarter about how he goes about doing it. Marquez is still the superior technician, but Pacquiao's improvements, especially on defense, have narrowed the gap.

I also think Father Time is Pacquiao’s corner. JMM is five years older, which could turn out to be significant - though Manny has certainly has put a lot of miles on the odometer in his career. If this fight goes the distance, age may end up working against Marquez.

Those factors tie into the final one, which is that Marquez really has only one way to win the fight, which is to out-box Pacquiao and win on the scorecards. It's almost unthinkable to see JMM scoring a knockout - he's KO'ed only two of his last nine opponents, and Manny hasn't been knocked out since 1999. That gives him less margin for error, increasing the chances that he'll be caught or worn down late.

And that's exactly what I think will happen. Marquez is an excellent boxer, and as the first fight showed, he's got toughness and heart to spare. The 2008 version of Pacquiao is better than the one he faced in 2004 though, and I like the new Manny to stop him in the late rounds.

On the undercard, I'm going to stay away from picking the Luevano-Jandaeng fight because I don't know enough about either fighter. I am going with David Diaz over Ramon Montano since he has too much at stake (he's been mentioned as the likely next opponent for Pacquiao should he win Saturday) to lose to an inferior opponent.

Uatu says...

Well, he doesn't say much more than what has been said above.

No reason to wait for the weigh-in because both of these guys are making weight no problem. Manny will look like an action figure with a crazy physique, and JMM will look good too. These guys are top flight pros and won't mess around and come in heavy. Too important.

Manny looks unbelievably fast in recent footage. Speed kills. If anyone can neutralize the speed though it's a consummate skilled pro like JMM.

JMM would have been the pick if the rematch had been made years ago. Not in 2008.
Lots of action, lots of fun. Manny UD 12

Undercard? Not interested in picking.

1 comment:

Jayson Deuna said...

Excellent analysis of the rematch. I also think Pacman will wear down JMM and emerged victorious via stoppage on the late rounds.

Juan Manuel Marquez is a very tough opponent though. Pacman will definitely have to dig at his deepest talents and courage to pull this one off.

I expect a very good fight. JMM will be able to control the early rounds. But as the fight progresses beginning on the 5th round.. Pacman will be able to impose his speed and power and JMM's age, as you have well pointed out, will also be a factor.

I predict a 9th round KO for Pac.

Thanks guys.. I will be looking forward for your round by round analysis of this fight. More power to this great site.

- jayson