The Franchise says...
Man, I really want to see Eddie Chambers win a world title. He was born in Pittsburgh and fights out of Philly, and it's hard to get any closer to the BoxingWatchers' hearts than that (unless he was also part Filipino, perhaps!).
That said, I just can't pick him to beat Wladimir Klitschko. I agree with the consensus opinion of many other observers, which is that Chambers can really box for a big guy... but maybe not quite as well as Klitschko.
In power it's no contest, with Eddie knocking out about 50 percent of his opponents and Wlad close to 84 percent. Then there's the size difference between the two men, which was very apparent at yesterday's weigh-in.
Freddie Roach is fond of saying that it's skill and not size that wins fights, but with all other things being equal - and that's not the case here, but humor me - it sure helps the bigger guy. If Chambers can't out-point Klitschko from the outside, and he dare not fight him toe-to-toe, then... what exactly?
I feel pretty confident Chambers will give a game effort, and he may give Wlad a tougher time in the early going than we have grown accustomed to seeing over the last few years. But all of the champ's advantages will show the longer the fight goes, and that's bad news for Fast Eddie.
Since I can't logically figure out a way for Chambers to win, I have no choice but to pick Klitschko by either unanimous decision or very late (11th or 12th round) TKO.
Uatu says...
I am not picking against Wlad until at least 2013.
Klitschko by unanimous decision.
Posted by The Franchise
Showing posts with label predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label predictions. Show all posts
12.3.10
Manny Pacquiao-Joshua Clottey: The Event Plus Undercard Predictions
The Franchise says...
It took a long, winding path to get to this point, but Manny Pacquiao and Joshua Clottey will do battle in front of roughly 50,000 fans at Cowboys Stadium on Saturday. It's not the fight everyone expected to see, but it's got the potential to offer its own kind of intrigue.
Not much needs to be said about Pacquiao, the choice of many observers as the top pound-for-pound boxer in the world and winner of his last 11 bouts. His explosive offense and ever-improving movement and ring awareness combine with the wisdom of trainer Freddie Roach to form a package that has simply overwhelmed most of his recent foes.
But if Pacquiao is the proverbial unstoppable force, Clottey may be the immovable object. The Ghana native uses an airtight guard to blunt his foes' attacks before responding with his own array of accurate punches.
Clottey also should be the biggest man Pacquiao has ever faced once both boxers rehydrate for fight night. Though Manny has carried the extra weight well as he's risen through the weight classes, Clottey is a true welterweight that could easily outweigh him by 10 pounds or more when they hit the ring.
Manny will have the advantage in speed and raw power, but those don't count for much if his punches don't find their mark. Clottey's challenge will be to ensure he doesn't give away early rounds on activity level alone as he looks for his opening.
There is some danger in this fight for Pacquiao, and not just the kind that is manufactured to sell the pay-per-view broadcast. If he allows Clottey to hang around in a close fight, the difference in bulk could show up in the championship rounds.
The guess here is that it won't go down like that. Clottey will block many, possibly most of the incoming fire, but some shots will be delivered at speeds and angles that surprise even him.
Expect Clottey to earn the respect of many viewers who never heard of him before he took this fight. But also look for Pacquiao to continue his winning ways, with the cumulative effect of his punches earning Manny a late-round TKO.
The undercard is anchored by an interesting if not spectacular lightweight title fight between Humberto Soto and David Diaz. Both fighters come in off victories over the same man (Jesus Chavez), but Soto had a much easier time in his win.
Diaz is a solid, disciplined boxer with a strong amateur background. His problem is when he runs into opponents who simply have too much for him physically, as was the case in his lopsided eight-round TKO loss to Pacquiao in the summer of 2008.
While it won't be to the same degree, Soto has some of those same troublesome qualities. Watch for him to display the faster hands and more damaging power punches as Humberto pounds out a unanimous decision.
Also on the undercard, look for Jose Luis Castillo to have just enough left to get past Alfonso Gomez and John Duddy to slug his way by Michael Medina.
Uatu says...
Manny by UD. I see Manny being much more active and banging away at the guard of Clottey, while Josh goes into the shell and fires back infrequently.
Posted by The Franchise
It took a long, winding path to get to this point, but Manny Pacquiao and Joshua Clottey will do battle in front of roughly 50,000 fans at Cowboys Stadium on Saturday. It's not the fight everyone expected to see, but it's got the potential to offer its own kind of intrigue.
Not much needs to be said about Pacquiao, the choice of many observers as the top pound-for-pound boxer in the world and winner of his last 11 bouts. His explosive offense and ever-improving movement and ring awareness combine with the wisdom of trainer Freddie Roach to form a package that has simply overwhelmed most of his recent foes.
But if Pacquiao is the proverbial unstoppable force, Clottey may be the immovable object. The Ghana native uses an airtight guard to blunt his foes' attacks before responding with his own array of accurate punches.
Clottey also should be the biggest man Pacquiao has ever faced once both boxers rehydrate for fight night. Though Manny has carried the extra weight well as he's risen through the weight classes, Clottey is a true welterweight that could easily outweigh him by 10 pounds or more when they hit the ring.
Manny will have the advantage in speed and raw power, but those don't count for much if his punches don't find their mark. Clottey's challenge will be to ensure he doesn't give away early rounds on activity level alone as he looks for his opening.
There is some danger in this fight for Pacquiao, and not just the kind that is manufactured to sell the pay-per-view broadcast. If he allows Clottey to hang around in a close fight, the difference in bulk could show up in the championship rounds.
The guess here is that it won't go down like that. Clottey will block many, possibly most of the incoming fire, but some shots will be delivered at speeds and angles that surprise even him.
Expect Clottey to earn the respect of many viewers who never heard of him before he took this fight. But also look for Pacquiao to continue his winning ways, with the cumulative effect of his punches earning Manny a late-round TKO.
The undercard is anchored by an interesting if not spectacular lightweight title fight between Humberto Soto and David Diaz. Both fighters come in off victories over the same man (Jesus Chavez), but Soto had a much easier time in his win.
Diaz is a solid, disciplined boxer with a strong amateur background. His problem is when he runs into opponents who simply have too much for him physically, as was the case in his lopsided eight-round TKO loss to Pacquiao in the summer of 2008.
While it won't be to the same degree, Soto has some of those same troublesome qualities. Watch for him to display the faster hands and more damaging power punches as Humberto pounds out a unanimous decision.
Also on the undercard, look for Jose Luis Castillo to have just enough left to get past Alfonso Gomez and John Duddy to slug his way by Michael Medina.
Uatu says...
Manny by UD. I see Manny being much more active and banging away at the guard of Clottey, while Josh goes into the shell and fires back infrequently.
Posted by The Franchise
5.3.10
Vic Darchinyan-Rodrigo Guerrero and Devon Alexander-Juan Urango: Predictions
This weekend was supposed to mark the beginning of Phase 2 of the Super Six World Boxing Classic, with Andre Dirrell taking on Arthur Abraham. A back injury to Dirrell moved that fight back a few weeks, but fight fans won't be left empty-handed thanks to televised cards on both Showtime and HBO.
The departure of the Abraham-Dirrell fight means Vic Darchinyan moves up to main event status on Showtime. That's not a bad thing, as having Darchinyan in action usually means something interesting is going to happen, whether it be physically, verbally or both.
In Rodrigo Guerrero, he's facing an unknown quantity to American fans. Just 22 years old, the undefeated Mexican has nine KO victories in his 14 pro fights, but he's been in just one bout scheduled for more than eight rounds and looks to be making a huge jump up in competition.
Guerrero has told reporters he plans on slugging it out with Darchinyan, which is brave but not necessarily smart. Vic has vicious power in both hands as just about every one of his opponents at super flyweight can attest.
He can also box, but he chooses to do so only on occasion. If Guerrero can't force him out of his comfort zone, he's in for a painful night.
Darchinyan seems to be more and more occupied with thoughts of revenge on Nonito Donaire, who handed him his only knockout loss in the summer of 2007. That means he may be his own worst enemy, as he can certainly get caught if he's looking past the business at hand.
Assuming he's focused, Darchinyan should be able to slug his way to victory, which is how he prefers it. Look for Vic to register a mid-round KO and give one of his typically entertaining post-fight interviews after the final bell.
On HBO, WBC 140-pound titleholder Devon Alexander looks to stay undefeated in a clash with hard-nosed Juan Urango. At 23, Alexander is one of the youngest American boxers wearing gold, and he comes in off an impressive performance in beating tricky Junior Witter last August.
Urango is the type of fighter who is good enough to make it to the top of the hill but not quite special enough to beat the best. His only two losses came to Ricky Hatton and Andre Berto - no shame there - but he was badly outclassed in both contests.
Alexander doesn't have Berto's lightning-fast hands or Hatton's pop, though he's above average in both areas. It's hard to look good against Witter, but Devon did so for the most part, showcasing strong right hooks to complement his straight lefts.
He won't have quite as much of a puzzle in Urango, who has the power to end things if he lands flush but can be out-boxed and out-hustled. Berto was criticized for fighting a boring style against him, but in all honesty, that may be Alexander's road map to success.
Urango has never been knocked out, so he's going to be gamely battling until the bitter end. I just think Alexander's star is still on the rise, and I expect the St. Louis native to win by unanimous decision.
Posted by The Franchise
The departure of the Abraham-Dirrell fight means Vic Darchinyan moves up to main event status on Showtime. That's not a bad thing, as having Darchinyan in action usually means something interesting is going to happen, whether it be physically, verbally or both.
In Rodrigo Guerrero, he's facing an unknown quantity to American fans. Just 22 years old, the undefeated Mexican has nine KO victories in his 14 pro fights, but he's been in just one bout scheduled for more than eight rounds and looks to be making a huge jump up in competition.
Guerrero has told reporters he plans on slugging it out with Darchinyan, which is brave but not necessarily smart. Vic has vicious power in both hands as just about every one of his opponents at super flyweight can attest.
He can also box, but he chooses to do so only on occasion. If Guerrero can't force him out of his comfort zone, he's in for a painful night.
Darchinyan seems to be more and more occupied with thoughts of revenge on Nonito Donaire, who handed him his only knockout loss in the summer of 2007. That means he may be his own worst enemy, as he can certainly get caught if he's looking past the business at hand.
Assuming he's focused, Darchinyan should be able to slug his way to victory, which is how he prefers it. Look for Vic to register a mid-round KO and give one of his typically entertaining post-fight interviews after the final bell.
On HBO, WBC 140-pound titleholder Devon Alexander looks to stay undefeated in a clash with hard-nosed Juan Urango. At 23, Alexander is one of the youngest American boxers wearing gold, and he comes in off an impressive performance in beating tricky Junior Witter last August.
Urango is the type of fighter who is good enough to make it to the top of the hill but not quite special enough to beat the best. His only two losses came to Ricky Hatton and Andre Berto - no shame there - but he was badly outclassed in both contests.
Alexander doesn't have Berto's lightning-fast hands or Hatton's pop, though he's above average in both areas. It's hard to look good against Witter, but Devon did so for the most part, showcasing strong right hooks to complement his straight lefts.
He won't have quite as much of a puzzle in Urango, who has the power to end things if he lands flush but can be out-boxed and out-hustled. Berto was criticized for fighting a boring style against him, but in all honesty, that may be Alexander's road map to success.
Urango has never been knocked out, so he's going to be gamely battling until the bitter end. I just think Alexander's star is still on the rise, and I expect the St. Louis native to win by unanimous decision.
Posted by The Franchise
4.2.10
Valero-DeMarco, Adamek-Estrada, Johnson-Mack: Predictions
The Franchise says...
Is Edwin Valero ready to graduate from seldom-seen phenom to bona fide rising star? If so, that process may begin this Saturday, when he headlines a Showtime broadcast by defending his WBC lightweight belt against Antonio DeMarco.
This one promises to be explosive for as long as it lasts. DeMarco likes to come forward, using jabs to set up his powerful left hand. He's also got a sturdy chin, as he showed en route to the ninth-round KO of Anges Adjaho last summer that earned him this title shot.
The question is whether any chin is enough to stand up to Valero, who became the stuff of internet legend by racking up 18 first-round knockouts in a row to begin his professional career. He's averaged almost five rounds of work over the last three years, but every one of his fights has ended with his foe unconscious or unable to continue.
DeMarco is taller and rangier, suggesting that he may find some success staying on the outside. But that isn't his usual M.O., and he also tends to be a slow starter.
Those two things could prove to be his downfall. Questions still remain about Valero's overall skill set, but they won't be answered this time out as the Venezuelan notches a mid-round KO.
In New Jersey, former two-division titleholder Tomasz Adamek will continue to try climbing the heavyweight ranks as he steps in against Jason Estrada. Newark's Prudential Center should be rocking, as a strong Polish-American contingent always turns out in force to support Adamek.
Estrada is a legit heavyweight whose fighting weight is usually just above 240 pounds, but he's not especially tall (listed at 6'1") or powerful (only four knockouts in 16 career victories). That means he may have trouble keeping Adamek from getting in close and making him pay when he does so.
Eventually, Adamek is going to run into someone who reminds him why it's tough to take on the big guys when you give up too much weight. I don't expect it will be this Saturday, though, as I see Adamek battering his way to a late-round stoppage.
Last but not least (and actually first in chronological terms), venerable Glen Johnson headlines Friday Night Fights in an IBF light heavyweight title eliminator against Yusaf Mack. Few boxers can be counted on to give 100 percent in the ring as Johnson, even at 41 years of age.
Mack certainly has a bit of both skill and power, and he's yet to lose since stepping up to campaign at 175. But Johnson has beaten and lost to opponents tougher than anyone on Mack's resume, and he's always in shape to go the full 12 rounds.
Still, it's hard to get the image of Johnson's last fight, a second loss to Chad Dawson, out of my head. Did he finally start to feel his age, or was Bad Chad just better prepared for him the second time around?
Let's say for the sake of argument it was a bit of both. The Road Warrior is starting to near the end of his journey, but I'm not sure he's quite there yet.
Maybe my heart is outvoting my head on this one, but I like Johnson to take a close decision.
Posted by The Franchise
Is Edwin Valero ready to graduate from seldom-seen phenom to bona fide rising star? If so, that process may begin this Saturday, when he headlines a Showtime broadcast by defending his WBC lightweight belt against Antonio DeMarco.
This one promises to be explosive for as long as it lasts. DeMarco likes to come forward, using jabs to set up his powerful left hand. He's also got a sturdy chin, as he showed en route to the ninth-round KO of Anges Adjaho last summer that earned him this title shot.
The question is whether any chin is enough to stand up to Valero, who became the stuff of internet legend by racking up 18 first-round knockouts in a row to begin his professional career. He's averaged almost five rounds of work over the last three years, but every one of his fights has ended with his foe unconscious or unable to continue.
DeMarco is taller and rangier, suggesting that he may find some success staying on the outside. But that isn't his usual M.O., and he also tends to be a slow starter.
Those two things could prove to be his downfall. Questions still remain about Valero's overall skill set, but they won't be answered this time out as the Venezuelan notches a mid-round KO.
In New Jersey, former two-division titleholder Tomasz Adamek will continue to try climbing the heavyweight ranks as he steps in against Jason Estrada. Newark's Prudential Center should be rocking, as a strong Polish-American contingent always turns out in force to support Adamek.
Estrada is a legit heavyweight whose fighting weight is usually just above 240 pounds, but he's not especially tall (listed at 6'1") or powerful (only four knockouts in 16 career victories). That means he may have trouble keeping Adamek from getting in close and making him pay when he does so.
Eventually, Adamek is going to run into someone who reminds him why it's tough to take on the big guys when you give up too much weight. I don't expect it will be this Saturday, though, as I see Adamek battering his way to a late-round stoppage.
Last but not least (and actually first in chronological terms), venerable Glen Johnson headlines Friday Night Fights in an IBF light heavyweight title eliminator against Yusaf Mack. Few boxers can be counted on to give 100 percent in the ring as Johnson, even at 41 years of age.
Mack certainly has a bit of both skill and power, and he's yet to lose since stepping up to campaign at 175. But Johnson has beaten and lost to opponents tougher than anyone on Mack's resume, and he's always in shape to go the full 12 rounds.
Still, it's hard to get the image of Johnson's last fight, a second loss to Chad Dawson, out of my head. Did he finally start to feel his age, or was Bad Chad just better prepared for him the second time around?
Let's say for the sake of argument it was a bit of both. The Road Warrior is starting to near the end of his journey, but I'm not sure he's quite there yet.
Maybe my heart is outvoting my head on this one, but I like Johnson to take a close decision.
Posted by The Franchise
21.1.10
Juan Manuel Lopez vs. Steven Luevano and Yuriorkis Gamboa vs. Rogers Mtagwa: Predictions
Something that is becoming a bit of a tradition - Juan Manuel Lopez and Yuriorkis Gamboa fighting on the same card at Madison Square Garden - is about to happen again this Saturday. But for the first time, both men may have their hands full on the same night.
You may recall that Juanma didn't exactly have a walk in the park the last time out, as he ended up getting rocked late in his bout with Rogers Mtagwa. Lopez was comfortably ahead on the scorecards, but he literally ended up holding on for most of the 12th round so he could make it to the final bell.
The former super bantamweight titleholder moves up to try to take the WBO featherweight belt away from Steven Luevano, who will pose an entirely different type of challenge. The smooth but relatively light-hitting (15 KO wins out of 37 victories) Californian has the most boxing skill of anyone Juanma has faced thus far, though he's had some close calls of his own over the last two years.
Hopefully Lopez learned to close some of the openings he gave Mtagwa, because Luevano will be able to exploit them much more easily. It will be interesting to see if his power can translate up another weight class, because after making short work of most of his opponents early in his career, he had trouble closing out his last three fights.
Juanma turns 27 this summer, so he's past the prospect stage. I have faith that he's still learning, though, so I think those lessons plus his natural gifts will be enough to ensure Lopez wins by unanimous decision.
Since Gamboa is being positioned for an eventual showdown with Juanma, it's convenient that he'll be in the co-feature facing Mtagwa. Even though we all know boxing doesn't have a transitive property, expect many people to be breathless with predictions that he would beat Lopez if he has an easier time with a common foe.
I expect that he will. The WBA featherweight champ has shown no problems disposing of guys at 126, and I'd give him an edge over Juanma at avoiding Mtagwa's powerful but wild shots.
If you've never seen Gamboa fight, you're in for a treat too. Unlike most of his countrymen who have difficulty shaking the Cuban amateur style, Yuriorkis goes into the ring looking to take his man out.
One thing that is a little troublesome is the rumor that Gamboa missed today's press conference in New York because he was having trouble making weight. His camp says he's just delaying facing the New York cold, but it's something to keep in mind.
Assuming all is well, Yuriorkis should simply have too much talent to lose. Mtagwa will come to fight, just as he did against Lopez, but Gamboa will prevail by mid-round KO.
Next time Lopez and Gamboa share a card at MSG, let's hope it's as opposite sides of the same fight.
Posted by The Franchise
You may recall that Juanma didn't exactly have a walk in the park the last time out, as he ended up getting rocked late in his bout with Rogers Mtagwa. Lopez was comfortably ahead on the scorecards, but he literally ended up holding on for most of the 12th round so he could make it to the final bell.
The former super bantamweight titleholder moves up to try to take the WBO featherweight belt away from Steven Luevano, who will pose an entirely different type of challenge. The smooth but relatively light-hitting (15 KO wins out of 37 victories) Californian has the most boxing skill of anyone Juanma has faced thus far, though he's had some close calls of his own over the last two years.
Hopefully Lopez learned to close some of the openings he gave Mtagwa, because Luevano will be able to exploit them much more easily. It will be interesting to see if his power can translate up another weight class, because after making short work of most of his opponents early in his career, he had trouble closing out his last three fights.
Juanma turns 27 this summer, so he's past the prospect stage. I have faith that he's still learning, though, so I think those lessons plus his natural gifts will be enough to ensure Lopez wins by unanimous decision.
Since Gamboa is being positioned for an eventual showdown with Juanma, it's convenient that he'll be in the co-feature facing Mtagwa. Even though we all know boxing doesn't have a transitive property, expect many people to be breathless with predictions that he would beat Lopez if he has an easier time with a common foe.
I expect that he will. The WBA featherweight champ has shown no problems disposing of guys at 126, and I'd give him an edge over Juanma at avoiding Mtagwa's powerful but wild shots.
If you've never seen Gamboa fight, you're in for a treat too. Unlike most of his countrymen who have difficulty shaking the Cuban amateur style, Yuriorkis goes into the ring looking to take his man out.
One thing that is a little troublesome is the rumor that Gamboa missed today's press conference in New York because he was having trouble making weight. His camp says he's just delaying facing the New York cold, but it's something to keep in mind.
Assuming all is well, Yuriorkis should simply have too much talent to lose. Mtagwa will come to fight, just as he did against Lopez, but Gamboa will prevail by mid-round KO.
Next time Lopez and Gamboa share a card at MSG, let's hope it's as opposite sides of the same fight.
Posted by The Franchise
19.12.09
Kelly Pavlik-Miguel Espino and Humberto Soto-Jesus Chavez: Predictions
The Franchise says...
This should be short and sweet. And by that I mean this post as well as the middleweight title fight between Kelly Pavlik and Miguel Espino.
I don't know much about Espino, but no reputable set of rankings has him listed as a top contender at 160 pounds. This fight will be all about Pavlik, meaning as long as his trials and tribulations haven't beaten him down mentally, he shouldn't be in for much of a challenge.
I'm assuming they haven't, so I expect him to put on a show for his hometown fans, possibly the only ones who would get excited for this fight. A fourth-round KO for The Ghost sounds about right.
The pay-per-view co-feature pitting Humberto Soto against Jesus Chavez is a little more interesting, at least on paper. Soto is on a nice little run, knocking out his last three opponents.
Chavez can't say the same, seeing as he's 0-2 so far this year. But he'll be in there swinging, and there's a decent chance that he or Soto or both of them will be hitting the canvas.
The only time I've ever seen Soto look completely outclassed was two years ago against Joan Guzman, and Chavez doesn't have those types of skills. I expect some nice action in this one before it ends with a right hand that gives Soto a late-round KO victory.
Posted by The Franchise
This should be short and sweet. And by that I mean this post as well as the middleweight title fight between Kelly Pavlik and Miguel Espino.
I don't know much about Espino, but no reputable set of rankings has him listed as a top contender at 160 pounds. This fight will be all about Pavlik, meaning as long as his trials and tribulations haven't beaten him down mentally, he shouldn't be in for much of a challenge.
I'm assuming they haven't, so I expect him to put on a show for his hometown fans, possibly the only ones who would get excited for this fight. A fourth-round KO for The Ghost sounds about right.
The pay-per-view co-feature pitting Humberto Soto against Jesus Chavez is a little more interesting, at least on paper. Soto is on a nice little run, knocking out his last three opponents.
Chavez can't say the same, seeing as he's 0-2 so far this year. But he'll be in there swinging, and there's a decent chance that he or Soto or both of them will be hitting the canvas.
The only time I've ever seen Soto look completely outclassed was two years ago against Joan Guzman, and Chavez doesn't have those types of skills. I expect some nice action in this one before it ends with a right hand that gives Soto a late-round KO victory.
Posted by The Franchise
11.12.09
Predictions: Pascal-Diaconu II, Diaz-Malignaggi II, Bradley-Peterson and More
Though boxing doesn't have an offseason like the stick-and-ball sports, it does take a de facto holiday recess each year from roughly mid-December to mid-January. It's not that there isn't any boxing during that time, but you won't see any championship bouts either.
This year's schedule is no exception, but at least fans are getting treated to one last action-packed weekend before the sport goes on hiatus. The next 48 hours will see title fights taking place in the U.S., Canada and Switzerland, plus what promises to be an exciting sequel in Chicago.
On Friday night, Jean Pascal and Adrian Diaconu meet for the second time this year to do battle for the WBC light heavyweight belt that Pascal claimed by decision in the first fight. Though Diaconu lost by at least three points on all three official scorecards, he put up a good battle most of the way, especially when he got off the canvas to rock Pascal late in a wildly entertaining fifth round.
Here's what I wrote about Pascal following that victory:
I still feel the same way going into the rematch. As far as making a pick, I learned a long time ago not to pick the loser of the first fight to win the next one unless there is some kind of extenuating circumstance.
That doesn't seem to be the case here. Diaconu is a tough guy and a solid boxer, but Pascal is faster and more talented and should retain the title by decision.
Pascal-Diaconu II is just an appetizer to the main course on Saturday, as HBO and Showtime serve up dueling cards which should both be worth watching. HBO has Victor Ortiz returning to action attempting to shake off his first career defeat and a rematch between Juan Diaz and Paulie Malignaggi in the main event.
The first battle between Diaz and Malignaggi was certainly memorable. Paulie spent much of the time before the fight complaining that he wouldn't get a fair shake from the judges fighting in front of Juan's hometown judges in Houston, and he turned out to be partially correct: after a tight, back-and-forth affair, one judge saw it 118-110 for Diaz.
They'll meet in Chicago this time around, so bias shouldn't be an issue. We know what to expect from Diaz, who comes straight forward and throws punches until either he or his opponent give out.
What isn't as certain is which version of Malignaggi will show up, as Paulie has been maddeningly inconsistent over the last two years. He has the faster hands but even less power (only five knockouts among his 26 career wins), so he'll need to be able to outbox Diaz for 12 rounds to win.
The educated guess is that Malignaggi will throw the quicker and more accurate shots while Diaz will be busier and have slightly more pop. Picking a winner could be a matter of personal preference, but my gut tells me Diaz will squeak it out on the cards, leaving Malignaggi despondent once again.
Along with the live fights on HBO will be tape delayed coverage of Vitali Klitschko taking on Kevin Johnson in Switzerland. This will be the elder Klitschko's third fight of 2009, as he attempts to make up for time lost to injury a few years ago.
The undefeated Johnson isn't short at 6' 3", but he'll have the same problem that most people do when facing Klitschko. Namely, he'll be too small to box from the outside and face too much firepower if he tries to get inside.
Johnson doesn't appear to have the power to stand and trade with Klitschko even if he does close the range, so I'm not sure how he pulls off the upset. Vitali will keep rolling with a mid-round KO.
Last but certainly not least, Showtime has two title fights on tap for Saturday. Vic Darchinyan drops back down in weight after an ill-fated effort at bantamweight to take on Tomas Rojas, while Timothy Bradley defends his 140-pound belt against undefeated Lamont Peterson.
Bradley has come out of nowhere to give his division a potential star with three solid victories over the past two years, along with a fight against Nate Campbell that was going his way until a cut ended it early. No individual aspects of his game stand out as being truly elite, but he's above average in speed, strength and technique and never seems to tire.
Fighting out of Memphis, Tennessee, Peterson is 27-0 but is taking a significant step up in competition to face Bradley. He can bring it to the head and body, though like his foe this weekend, he doesn't have particularly frightening KO power.
Peterson will have height and reach advantages, but Bradley has faced the same kinds of challenges before and prevailed. Both men have fast hands, so it will be interesting to see who takes the lead in terms of aggression.
This has the makings of a crowd-pleasing scrap between two fighters whose best years are almost certainly still in front of them. Experience fighting top-level opposition could turn out to be the difference, so I'm leaning toward Bradley to win by decision.
Posted by The Franchise
This year's schedule is no exception, but at least fans are getting treated to one last action-packed weekend before the sport goes on hiatus. The next 48 hours will see title fights taking place in the U.S., Canada and Switzerland, plus what promises to be an exciting sequel in Chicago.
On Friday night, Jean Pascal and Adrian Diaconu meet for the second time this year to do battle for the WBC light heavyweight belt that Pascal claimed by decision in the first fight. Though Diaconu lost by at least three points on all three official scorecards, he put up a good battle most of the way, especially when he got off the canvas to rock Pascal late in a wildly entertaining fifth round.
Here's what I wrote about Pascal following that victory:
I'd never seen Pascal fight before, and he struck me as a really poor man's Roy Jones Jr. He carried his hands low, using his reflexes and movement to dodge punches, often at the last possible moment.
He also flashed some quick hands on offense, though he didn't seem to have a ton of power behind all of his shots. You definitely got the feeling he was flirting with disaster even as he was winning rounds, which may not be the safest way to have success but does provide a good show for fans.
I still feel the same way going into the rematch. As far as making a pick, I learned a long time ago not to pick the loser of the first fight to win the next one unless there is some kind of extenuating circumstance.
That doesn't seem to be the case here. Diaconu is a tough guy and a solid boxer, but Pascal is faster and more talented and should retain the title by decision.
Pascal-Diaconu II is just an appetizer to the main course on Saturday, as HBO and Showtime serve up dueling cards which should both be worth watching. HBO has Victor Ortiz returning to action attempting to shake off his first career defeat and a rematch between Juan Diaz and Paulie Malignaggi in the main event.
The first battle between Diaz and Malignaggi was certainly memorable. Paulie spent much of the time before the fight complaining that he wouldn't get a fair shake from the judges fighting in front of Juan's hometown judges in Houston, and he turned out to be partially correct: after a tight, back-and-forth affair, one judge saw it 118-110 for Diaz.
They'll meet in Chicago this time around, so bias shouldn't be an issue. We know what to expect from Diaz, who comes straight forward and throws punches until either he or his opponent give out.
What isn't as certain is which version of Malignaggi will show up, as Paulie has been maddeningly inconsistent over the last two years. He has the faster hands but even less power (only five knockouts among his 26 career wins), so he'll need to be able to outbox Diaz for 12 rounds to win.
The educated guess is that Malignaggi will throw the quicker and more accurate shots while Diaz will be busier and have slightly more pop. Picking a winner could be a matter of personal preference, but my gut tells me Diaz will squeak it out on the cards, leaving Malignaggi despondent once again.
Along with the live fights on HBO will be tape delayed coverage of Vitali Klitschko taking on Kevin Johnson in Switzerland. This will be the elder Klitschko's third fight of 2009, as he attempts to make up for time lost to injury a few years ago.
The undefeated Johnson isn't short at 6' 3", but he'll have the same problem that most people do when facing Klitschko. Namely, he'll be too small to box from the outside and face too much firepower if he tries to get inside.
Johnson doesn't appear to have the power to stand and trade with Klitschko even if he does close the range, so I'm not sure how he pulls off the upset. Vitali will keep rolling with a mid-round KO.
Last but certainly not least, Showtime has two title fights on tap for Saturday. Vic Darchinyan drops back down in weight after an ill-fated effort at bantamweight to take on Tomas Rojas, while Timothy Bradley defends his 140-pound belt against undefeated Lamont Peterson.
Bradley has come out of nowhere to give his division a potential star with three solid victories over the past two years, along with a fight against Nate Campbell that was going his way until a cut ended it early. No individual aspects of his game stand out as being truly elite, but he's above average in speed, strength and technique and never seems to tire.
Fighting out of Memphis, Tennessee, Peterson is 27-0 but is taking a significant step up in competition to face Bradley. He can bring it to the head and body, though like his foe this weekend, he doesn't have particularly frightening KO power.
Peterson will have height and reach advantages, but Bradley has faced the same kinds of challenges before and prevailed. Both men have fast hands, so it will be interesting to see who takes the lead in terms of aggression.
This has the makings of a crowd-pleasing scrap between two fighters whose best years are almost certainly still in front of them. Experience fighting top-level opposition could turn out to be the difference, so I'm leaning toward Bradley to win by decision.
Posted by The Franchise
4.12.09
Paul Williams vs. Sergio Martinez and Chris Arreola vs. Brian Minto: Predictions
Two American boxers facing different but potentially tricky sets of circumstances take center stage on Saturday night, as HBO returns to Atlantic City for its final World Championship Boxing broadcast of 2009.
For Paul "The Punisher" Williams, probably the best boxer casual sports fans don't know, the challenge will be getting himself up to face a much different opponent than the one he originally expected to fight. Twice he thought he had a date nailed down with middleweight champion Kelly Pavlik only to have the bout torpedoed by The Ghost's troublesome staph infection.
Pavlik's power and toughness would have been a challenge, but Williams will get an entirely different kind of test from Sergio Martinez. The southpaw Spaniard loves to stick and move, as fans found out in February during a questionable majority draw with Kermit Cintron.
Martinez started slowly in that fight but won't have the same luxury against Williams, who throws punches constantly when he has his 'A' game going. Those shots also give foes fits because his height and long arms allow them to come from unusual angles, which should still be the case on Saturday even though Martinez isn't short himself (he's listed at 5-foot-11).
Williams' lone career loss, suffered at the hands of Carlos Quintana back in February 2008, was more the result of a lackluster performance on his part than anything Quintana did particularly well. Paul proved that by getting quick revenge with a first-round KO when they met four months later.
If Williams is moping around about losing the much bigger Pavlik fight, Martinez is skillful enough to box his way to a victory and fit enough to keep it up for 12 rounds. Otherwise, Williams should be able to build himself an early lead, and Martinez doesn't seem to have the type of power that would enable him to come from behind in the late stages.
Here's hoping that Williams has his head in the right place, because the stardom that has so far eluded him will slip even further away if he stumbles here. My guess is that he won't, and even though Martinez will make him earn it, The Punisher will emerge with a unanimous decision.
In the televised co-feature, heavyweight Chris "Nightmare" Arreola will attempt to rebound from his own personal bad dream. That happened in September, when Vitali Klitschko took him apart over 10 rounds, literally moving Arreola to tears.
Arreola showed he had only a puncher's chance against the elder Klitschko, but that may be all his opponent this weekend, Brian Minto, has against him. All you need to know about him is that he was fighting at a Day's Inn in Western Pennsylvania back in April.
He is the current NABO heavyweight titleholder, for what that's worth. But as long as Arreola has put his first professional defeat behind him and is in decent shape - never a sure thing, as we've seen in the past - Minto should be relatively light work.
Expect that to be the case, with Arreola winning by KO in four rounds or less.
Posted by The Franchise
For Paul "The Punisher" Williams, probably the best boxer casual sports fans don't know, the challenge will be getting himself up to face a much different opponent than the one he originally expected to fight. Twice he thought he had a date nailed down with middleweight champion Kelly Pavlik only to have the bout torpedoed by The Ghost's troublesome staph infection.
Pavlik's power and toughness would have been a challenge, but Williams will get an entirely different kind of test from Sergio Martinez. The southpaw Spaniard loves to stick and move, as fans found out in February during a questionable majority draw with Kermit Cintron.
Martinez started slowly in that fight but won't have the same luxury against Williams, who throws punches constantly when he has his 'A' game going. Those shots also give foes fits because his height and long arms allow them to come from unusual angles, which should still be the case on Saturday even though Martinez isn't short himself (he's listed at 5-foot-11).
Williams' lone career loss, suffered at the hands of Carlos Quintana back in February 2008, was more the result of a lackluster performance on his part than anything Quintana did particularly well. Paul proved that by getting quick revenge with a first-round KO when they met four months later.
If Williams is moping around about losing the much bigger Pavlik fight, Martinez is skillful enough to box his way to a victory and fit enough to keep it up for 12 rounds. Otherwise, Williams should be able to build himself an early lead, and Martinez doesn't seem to have the type of power that would enable him to come from behind in the late stages.
Here's hoping that Williams has his head in the right place, because the stardom that has so far eluded him will slip even further away if he stumbles here. My guess is that he won't, and even though Martinez will make him earn it, The Punisher will emerge with a unanimous decision.
In the televised co-feature, heavyweight Chris "Nightmare" Arreola will attempt to rebound from his own personal bad dream. That happened in September, when Vitali Klitschko took him apart over 10 rounds, literally moving Arreola to tears.
Arreola showed he had only a puncher's chance against the elder Klitschko, but that may be all his opponent this weekend, Brian Minto, has against him. All you need to know about him is that he was fighting at a Day's Inn in Western Pennsylvania back in April.
He is the current NABO heavyweight titleholder, for what that's worth. But as long as Arreola has put his first professional defeat behind him and is in decent shape - never a sure thing, as we've seen in the past - Minto should be relatively light work.
Expect that to be the case, with Arreola winning by KO in four rounds or less.
Posted by The Franchise
27.11.09
Lucian Bute-Librado Andrade II and Joan Guzman-Ali Funeka: Predictions
The Franchise says...
Last time Lucian Bute and Librado Andrade met, things were going Bute's way for almost the entire fight. And by that I mean until the last few seconds of the 12th and final round.
After outboxing the more aggressive but less effective Andrade in almost every round, Bute got either a bit tired or a bit brave and ended up trading with his challenger. He came out on the wrong end of the exchange and needed what seemed like a lot more than ten seconds to "beat" the count and hold onto his super middleweight title.
Andrade's team must not have been too upset over the perception that Bute (who's originally from Romania but resides in Montreal) was bailed out by home cooking, because he's headed back to Quebec for Saturday's rematch. Quebec City will be the site this time, but the fans should still be solidly behind Bute.
There's really nothing to suggest this fight will go too much differently than the first one. Andrade needs to find a way to land more punches while he's pressuring Bute, but while the IBF titleholder is sometimes around to be hit, he's much faster and just slick enough not to lose too many rounds.
Expect the tough and persistent Andrade, who's never been knocked out, to be around until the end. But unless Bute experiences another late-fight case of fatigue or bravado (take your pick), he should retain his title by unanimous decision.
The co-feature on HBO's Boxing After Dark broadcast has the potential to outshine the main event. Joan Guzman and Ali Funeka will do battle for the vacant IBF lightweight title in a bout where both boxers likely feel they have something to prove.
Aside from Kelly Pavlik, there's probably no more star-crossed top contender in any weight class than Guzman. He was all set to take on Nate Campbell in August of 2008, but failed to make weight and ended up not fighting at all after doctors decided his efforts to cut would have endangered him.
Earlier this year Guzman's name was thrown around as a possible opponent for 140-pound champ Timothy Bradley, but that fight never materialized. Whether he's at fault or not, the former super bantamweight and super featherweight titleholder has fought just twice in the last 35 months.
Funeka, meanwhile, was pretty much an unknown quantity outside his native South Africa until this past February, when he gave Campbell all he could handle before dropping a majority decision. He's tall, strong and very active, and he's certainly capable of bringing it to Guzman for 12 rounds.
This is a tough call to make because of the uncertainty over what version of Guzman will enter the ring on Saturday. He's always had quick hands and slippery defense, but ring rust and stamina are concerns. It's also fair to wonder if he'll have enough pop to keep Funeka honest, as he's never been a huge puncher (his last eight wins all came on the scorecards) even in lower weight classes.
If Guzman looks anything like he has in his best form, his speed, accuracy and defense should be a package that is too much for Funeka. Anything less and the man known as Rush Hour wins. This pick is made without a ton of conviction, but this writer likes Guzman to take a narrow decision by rediscovering some of his old magic, leaving Funeka to once again agonize over how close he came to a big win.
Posted by The Franchise
Last time Lucian Bute and Librado Andrade met, things were going Bute's way for almost the entire fight. And by that I mean until the last few seconds of the 12th and final round.
After outboxing the more aggressive but less effective Andrade in almost every round, Bute got either a bit tired or a bit brave and ended up trading with his challenger. He came out on the wrong end of the exchange and needed what seemed like a lot more than ten seconds to "beat" the count and hold onto his super middleweight title.
Andrade's team must not have been too upset over the perception that Bute (who's originally from Romania but resides in Montreal) was bailed out by home cooking, because he's headed back to Quebec for Saturday's rematch. Quebec City will be the site this time, but the fans should still be solidly behind Bute.
There's really nothing to suggest this fight will go too much differently than the first one. Andrade needs to find a way to land more punches while he's pressuring Bute, but while the IBF titleholder is sometimes around to be hit, he's much faster and just slick enough not to lose too many rounds.
Expect the tough and persistent Andrade, who's never been knocked out, to be around until the end. But unless Bute experiences another late-fight case of fatigue or bravado (take your pick), he should retain his title by unanimous decision.
The co-feature on HBO's Boxing After Dark broadcast has the potential to outshine the main event. Joan Guzman and Ali Funeka will do battle for the vacant IBF lightweight title in a bout where both boxers likely feel they have something to prove.
Aside from Kelly Pavlik, there's probably no more star-crossed top contender in any weight class than Guzman. He was all set to take on Nate Campbell in August of 2008, but failed to make weight and ended up not fighting at all after doctors decided his efforts to cut would have endangered him.
Earlier this year Guzman's name was thrown around as a possible opponent for 140-pound champ Timothy Bradley, but that fight never materialized. Whether he's at fault or not, the former super bantamweight and super featherweight titleholder has fought just twice in the last 35 months.
Funeka, meanwhile, was pretty much an unknown quantity outside his native South Africa until this past February, when he gave Campbell all he could handle before dropping a majority decision. He's tall, strong and very active, and he's certainly capable of bringing it to Guzman for 12 rounds.
This is a tough call to make because of the uncertainty over what version of Guzman will enter the ring on Saturday. He's always had quick hands and slippery defense, but ring rust and stamina are concerns. It's also fair to wonder if he'll have enough pop to keep Funeka honest, as he's never been a huge puncher (his last eight wins all came on the scorecards) even in lower weight classes.
If Guzman looks anything like he has in his best form, his speed, accuracy and defense should be a package that is too much for Funeka. Anything less and the man known as Rush Hour wins. This pick is made without a ton of conviction, but this writer likes Guzman to take a narrow decision by rediscovering some of his old magic, leaving Funeka to once again agonize over how close he came to a big win.
Posted by The Franchise
20.11.09
Mikkel Kessler vs. Andre Ward: Predictions
The Franchise says...
When the initial pairings for the first stage of the Super Six World Boxing Classic were released, this is the fight that jumped out at me right away. Mikkel Kessler impressed me a lot by giving Joe Calzaghe a good fight a few years ago, and Andre Ward seems like a star in the making. Putting them in the ring together can't help but lead to good things, right?
In some ways this match-up is similar to the Carl Froch-Andre Dirrell fight with a faster American going up against a more powerful European. But that's about where it ends, because Kessler has more boxing skills than Froch, while Ward is a more polished product than the other Andre.
There's certainly a chance that this is too big a step up for Ward, both in terms of competition and the big stage. There are some slight questions about his power and his chin, too, and Kessler will expose them if they are legitimate flaws.
I think Ward is ready to shine. Kessler is too tough and too smart to get knocked out, but I believe he'll come up short on the scorecards and Ward will win a tight but unanimous decision.
Uatu says...
Kessler to win. I foresee a knockdown, and possibly a TKO, and the towel being thrown in.
Posted by The Franchise
When the initial pairings for the first stage of the Super Six World Boxing Classic were released, this is the fight that jumped out at me right away. Mikkel Kessler impressed me a lot by giving Joe Calzaghe a good fight a few years ago, and Andre Ward seems like a star in the making. Putting them in the ring together can't help but lead to good things, right?
In some ways this match-up is similar to the Carl Froch-Andre Dirrell fight with a faster American going up against a more powerful European. But that's about where it ends, because Kessler has more boxing skills than Froch, while Ward is a more polished product than the other Andre.
There's certainly a chance that this is too big a step up for Ward, both in terms of competition and the big stage. There are some slight questions about his power and his chin, too, and Kessler will expose them if they are legitimate flaws.
I think Ward is ready to shine. Kessler is too tough and too smart to get knocked out, but I believe he'll come up short on the scorecards and Ward will win a tight but unanimous decision.
Uatu says...
Kessler to win. I foresee a knockdown, and possibly a TKO, and the towel being thrown in.
Posted by The Franchise
12.11.09
Manny Pacquiao vs. Miguel Cotto: Predictions
The Franchise says...
As it always does for a huge fight, it seemed like time was moving in slow motion over the last few weeks leading up to Pacquiao-Cotto. But it's finally here, and we'll soon see if it lives up to the hype.
Popular opinion seems to be suggesting that it won't. Pacquiao is a fairly large betting favorite, numerous observers are stating that Cotto isn't the same fighter he was before getting pummeled by Antonio Margarito, and there are questions about the skill of Cotto's corner. Pac Man trainer Freddie Roach (who, of course, may just be playing mind games) has changed his prediction to a first-round KO.
Yes, Manny will be faster than Miguel. It's possible he'll hit almost as hard too. But in boxing, everything is relative, and that's why I think this will be a closer, tougher fight than some believe.
Since Pacquiao has ventured above lightweight, he's fought two big names who in retrospect had no shot to beat him. Oscar De La Hoya was too old and too drained, while Ricky Hatton was way too slow and (surprisingly) too small as well.
Cotto is none of those things, so that alone makes me think he'll fare better than the Golden Boy or The Hitman. Inexperienced trainer or not, he's also capable of making mid-fight adjustments, though I am well aware that Manny's speed may render changes in strategy useless.
I think all outcomes are possible, though I think a Pacquiao KO is most likely and a Cotto decision least likely. I just see Cotto making Manny work really hard to earn this one, meaning I expect Pacquiao to win by late TKO.
Uatu says...
Nothing would shock me in this fight, but I would be surprised if there was a KO either way. I think Cotto is an excellent boxer and a tough guy, so I don't see Manny getting a KO, and for sure not in the first round.
I feel like Roach has gotten very cocky over the last few years, but then again, Manny has been backing it up, so you could argue he's just telling it like it is. Does he truly believe Manny is getting a first round ko? I am not sure. What I am sure of is, Roach is going to be the better of the two trainers.
So, with the Roach advantage, and the weight limit being the lower 145 amount, I see Manny by unanimous decision. I believe he wins fairly easily, too.
As it always does for a huge fight, it seemed like time was moving in slow motion over the last few weeks leading up to Pacquiao-Cotto. But it's finally here, and we'll soon see if it lives up to the hype.
Popular opinion seems to be suggesting that it won't. Pacquiao is a fairly large betting favorite, numerous observers are stating that Cotto isn't the same fighter he was before getting pummeled by Antonio Margarito, and there are questions about the skill of Cotto's corner. Pac Man trainer Freddie Roach (who, of course, may just be playing mind games) has changed his prediction to a first-round KO.
Yes, Manny will be faster than Miguel. It's possible he'll hit almost as hard too. But in boxing, everything is relative, and that's why I think this will be a closer, tougher fight than some believe.
Since Pacquiao has ventured above lightweight, he's fought two big names who in retrospect had no shot to beat him. Oscar De La Hoya was too old and too drained, while Ricky Hatton was way too slow and (surprisingly) too small as well.
Cotto is none of those things, so that alone makes me think he'll fare better than the Golden Boy or The Hitman. Inexperienced trainer or not, he's also capable of making mid-fight adjustments, though I am well aware that Manny's speed may render changes in strategy useless.
I think all outcomes are possible, though I think a Pacquiao KO is most likely and a Cotto decision least likely. I just see Cotto making Manny work really hard to earn this one, meaning I expect Pacquiao to win by late TKO.
Uatu says...
Nothing would shock me in this fight, but I would be surprised if there was a KO either way. I think Cotto is an excellent boxer and a tough guy, so I don't see Manny getting a KO, and for sure not in the first round.
I feel like Roach has gotten very cocky over the last few years, but then again, Manny has been backing it up, so you could argue he's just telling it like it is. Does he truly believe Manny is getting a first round ko? I am not sure. What I am sure of is, Roach is going to be the better of the two trainers.
So, with the Roach advantage, and the weight limit being the lower 145 amount, I see Manny by unanimous decision. I believe he wins fairly easily, too.
Spartan117 says....
The buzz I'm hearing from the analysts that are siding with Cotto sounds strangely similar to what they said about Manny's fights with De La Hoya and Hatton. They're saying that Cotto is too big and too strong for Manny. I really don't see the size being an issue. Manny is just too fast and accurate for Cotto. I see Manny coming out hard early which will prove to be too much for Cotto towards the middle of the fight....Manny by mid round TKO
6.11.09
Dawson-Johnson II and Valuev-Haye: Predictions
The Franchise says...
Though there's a megafight looming on the horizon next weekend, there's some business to attend to in two different locations this Saturday. First and foremost is a very interesting rematch between Chad Dawson and Glen Johnson in Dawson's Hartford, Connecticut backyard.
You may recall that the first fight was pretty close, and I had to go back and check out my own scorecard to see how the flow of the action unfolded. I actually had it a point closer than the actual judges, even after giving the final three rounds to Johnson, so while I thought (and still believe) that it was a very close call, I don't think the Road Warrior got robbed by any means.
That being said, while I expect this should be a hard-fought rematch with its share of excitement, I don't know that it lends itself to tons of analysis. Both men are known quantities and probably won't abandon the strategies they used the first time, since in a sense, they both worked: Dawson won plenty of rounds with his boxing, while Johnson came forward relentlessly and almost pulled it out in the late rounds.
The main variables this time around are whether the much younger Dawson has learned any new tricks since last time (who knows?) and whether Father Time has finally run down Johnson (I want to say no, but it's certainly possible). Chad did have a scare in the 10th round of the first fight that he'll want to avoid this time out, but he's also probably facing some self-applied pressure to win more convincingly this time, so tactically I'm thinking that's a wash.
Put simply, if Dawson is the pound-for-pound talent we suspect he may be, he should win more rounds in this one, and though you always hate to think this way, fighting in Hartford doesn't figure to hurt his chances. That adds up to Bad Chad by unanimous decision, but likely in more decisive fashion the second time around.
Across the world in Germany, one of the heavyweight titles David Haye has supposedly always wanted a shot at is on the line when he tries to upend the giant Nikolai Valuev. I say supposedly because Haye appeared to have title shots against both Klitschko brothers lined up and ended up fighting neither of them.
It seems strange that facing a 7-footer would be the path of least resistance, yet that's exactly the case here. Valuev can box alright for his size, but he'll never be mistaken for Wladimir or Vitali, and that's bound to be just what Haye and his team are counting on.
Still, there's the size thing. Haye has power, but extending it to hit someone who is nine inches taller... I mean, at some point it just becomes a physics problem, doesn't it?
I'd actually feel safer picking Haye if he was a technician a la Chris Byrd in his prime, so he could just get his shots in and get out of the way. As it is, despite logic suggesting someone is getting knocked out, I have a bad feeling that this is going to be an ugly mess that gets decided on the cards.
Forced to make a pick, I'll say Valuev by decision, meaning the noise coming from Haye will be how he got jobbed. If he wins, it may force one of the Klitschkos to fight him if they want to collect all the belts, and that may be the only way they'll do it after the shenanigans he pulled before.
Posted by The Franchise
Though there's a megafight looming on the horizon next weekend, there's some business to attend to in two different locations this Saturday. First and foremost is a very interesting rematch between Chad Dawson and Glen Johnson in Dawson's Hartford, Connecticut backyard.
You may recall that the first fight was pretty close, and I had to go back and check out my own scorecard to see how the flow of the action unfolded. I actually had it a point closer than the actual judges, even after giving the final three rounds to Johnson, so while I thought (and still believe) that it was a very close call, I don't think the Road Warrior got robbed by any means.
That being said, while I expect this should be a hard-fought rematch with its share of excitement, I don't know that it lends itself to tons of analysis. Both men are known quantities and probably won't abandon the strategies they used the first time, since in a sense, they both worked: Dawson won plenty of rounds with his boxing, while Johnson came forward relentlessly and almost pulled it out in the late rounds.
The main variables this time around are whether the much younger Dawson has learned any new tricks since last time (who knows?) and whether Father Time has finally run down Johnson (I want to say no, but it's certainly possible). Chad did have a scare in the 10th round of the first fight that he'll want to avoid this time out, but he's also probably facing some self-applied pressure to win more convincingly this time, so tactically I'm thinking that's a wash.
Put simply, if Dawson is the pound-for-pound talent we suspect he may be, he should win more rounds in this one, and though you always hate to think this way, fighting in Hartford doesn't figure to hurt his chances. That adds up to Bad Chad by unanimous decision, but likely in more decisive fashion the second time around.
Across the world in Germany, one of the heavyweight titles David Haye has supposedly always wanted a shot at is on the line when he tries to upend the giant Nikolai Valuev. I say supposedly because Haye appeared to have title shots against both Klitschko brothers lined up and ended up fighting neither of them.
It seems strange that facing a 7-footer would be the path of least resistance, yet that's exactly the case here. Valuev can box alright for his size, but he'll never be mistaken for Wladimir or Vitali, and that's bound to be just what Haye and his team are counting on.
Still, there's the size thing. Haye has power, but extending it to hit someone who is nine inches taller... I mean, at some point it just becomes a physics problem, doesn't it?
I'd actually feel safer picking Haye if he was a technician a la Chris Byrd in his prime, so he could just get his shots in and get out of the way. As it is, despite logic suggesting someone is getting knocked out, I have a bad feeling that this is going to be an ugly mess that gets decided on the cards.
Forced to make a pick, I'll say Valuev by decision, meaning the noise coming from Haye will be how he got jobbed. If he wins, it may force one of the Klitschkos to fight him if they want to collect all the belts, and that may be the only way they'll do it after the shenanigans he pulled before.
Posted by The Franchise
16.10.09
Predictions: Abraham-Taylor and Froch-Dirrell
The Franchise says...
The Super Six World Boxing Classic is finally here, and it's a damn good time to be a boxing fan. If you're like me, one of the things you always hope for is to see top fighters facing each other, and this tournament ensures that we'll be watching exactly that in the super middleweight division for the next year and a half or so.
The first two fights have some intriguing subplots. Arthur Abraham and Jermain Taylor were both champions at 160 pounds, and while Taylor has two fights under his belt at 168 (going 1-1), Abraham is making his first serious foray into the division.
He's physically the smallest man in the tourney, and that could turn out to be an important fact, because he's a serious threat to win the whole thing if he can translate his style to the higher weight class. Abraham is efficient and accurate, content to wait for the right time to let loose even if that takes a few rounds.
Taylor is the only man in the field for whom the event is something of a final stab at regaining elite status. His days as the undisputed middleweight champion seem far behind him now, and he heads in off of three losses in his last four fights.
If Taylor can use what looks like a significant reach advantage and keep Abraham at bay with his jab, he has a definite chance to make his statement. He's capable of some very smart boxing - it's easy to forget that he did some good things in his first loss to Kelly Pavlik and would have beaten Carl Froch is he could have held on for another 14 seconds - but he has to be able to put it togehter for 12 rounds, and his track record on that score is not good.
I think this fight will be closer than some will suspect based on each man's recent performances, as Taylor uses what he's learned fighting some truly top-notch competition to make it very competitive. Ultimately, I just believe that Abraham will show his true quality over 12 rounds, and with the home fans urging him on, King Arthur will earn a narrow but unanimous decision.
The other fight on the tournament's first night sees WBC super middleweight titleholder Carl Froch put his gold on the line against undefeated but relatively untested American Andre Dirrell. It shapes up as the champ's power and toughness against the challenger's flashy quickness in front of Froch's literal hometown fans in Nottingham, England.
It's really hard to know exactly what we've got in Dirrell, who is two years older than fellow participant Andre Ward but has been in even lighter to this point. It's no mystery that he has a solid amateur background as a former Olympic bronze medalist, has speed in both his hands and his feet and he can switch from his normal southpaw stance to an orthodox look any time and be comfortable either way.
The unknown is how he'll handle taking shots from a puncher like Froch, who proved he can bring the thunder even after going 12 rounds with his dramatic victory over Taylor earlier this year. We should know early on if he has an answer for the movement and hand speed of Dirrell, and if he does, it could be a long, painful night for the American.
This is the rare fight where no outcome would surprise me. There's a lot to like about Froch's experience and power (plus the friendly crowd and, perhaps, judges), but it's possible Dirrell's athleticism will trump those factors.
I'm going to go with my gut over my head for this pick. While acknowledging Froch could catch his foe with a fight-ending shot, I think Saturday will be a coming out party in the form of Dirrell winning by decision, which may be closer on the cards than it appears on television.
Uatu says...
I like Abraham to wear Taylor down late and win by KO.
I will take Froch to wear Dirrell down late and win by decision.
The Super Six World Boxing Classic is finally here, and it's a damn good time to be a boxing fan. If you're like me, one of the things you always hope for is to see top fighters facing each other, and this tournament ensures that we'll be watching exactly that in the super middleweight division for the next year and a half or so.
The first two fights have some intriguing subplots. Arthur Abraham and Jermain Taylor were both champions at 160 pounds, and while Taylor has two fights under his belt at 168 (going 1-1), Abraham is making his first serious foray into the division.
He's physically the smallest man in the tourney, and that could turn out to be an important fact, because he's a serious threat to win the whole thing if he can translate his style to the higher weight class. Abraham is efficient and accurate, content to wait for the right time to let loose even if that takes a few rounds.
Taylor is the only man in the field for whom the event is something of a final stab at regaining elite status. His days as the undisputed middleweight champion seem far behind him now, and he heads in off of three losses in his last four fights.
If Taylor can use what looks like a significant reach advantage and keep Abraham at bay with his jab, he has a definite chance to make his statement. He's capable of some very smart boxing - it's easy to forget that he did some good things in his first loss to Kelly Pavlik and would have beaten Carl Froch is he could have held on for another 14 seconds - but he has to be able to put it togehter for 12 rounds, and his track record on that score is not good.
I think this fight will be closer than some will suspect based on each man's recent performances, as Taylor uses what he's learned fighting some truly top-notch competition to make it very competitive. Ultimately, I just believe that Abraham will show his true quality over 12 rounds, and with the home fans urging him on, King Arthur will earn a narrow but unanimous decision.
The other fight on the tournament's first night sees WBC super middleweight titleholder Carl Froch put his gold on the line against undefeated but relatively untested American Andre Dirrell. It shapes up as the champ's power and toughness against the challenger's flashy quickness in front of Froch's literal hometown fans in Nottingham, England.
It's really hard to know exactly what we've got in Dirrell, who is two years older than fellow participant Andre Ward but has been in even lighter to this point. It's no mystery that he has a solid amateur background as a former Olympic bronze medalist, has speed in both his hands and his feet and he can switch from his normal southpaw stance to an orthodox look any time and be comfortable either way.
The unknown is how he'll handle taking shots from a puncher like Froch, who proved he can bring the thunder even after going 12 rounds with his dramatic victory over Taylor earlier this year. We should know early on if he has an answer for the movement and hand speed of Dirrell, and if he does, it could be a long, painful night for the American.
This is the rare fight where no outcome would surprise me. There's a lot to like about Froch's experience and power (plus the friendly crowd and, perhaps, judges), but it's possible Dirrell's athleticism will trump those factors.
I'm going to go with my gut over my head for this pick. While acknowledging Froch could catch his foe with a fight-ending shot, I think Saturday will be a coming out party in the form of Dirrell winning by decision, which may be closer on the cards than it appears on television.
Uatu says...
I like Abraham to wear Taylor down late and win by KO.
I will take Froch to wear Dirrell down late and win by decision.
Spartan117 says...
I like Taylor to get the upset victory tomorrow night. I'm looking forward to see how his new training methods will prepare him for a tough opponent like King Arthur. Taylor by decision.
I see Dirrell trying to make a statement with an early round K.O. Dirrell by K.O. in round 3-6
Posted by The Franchise
Posted by The Franchise
8.10.09
Predictions: Island Warriors - Latin Fury 12 - Juan Manuel Lopez, Yuriorkis Gamboa and More
The Franchise says...
I don't mind paying money to watch Juan Manuel Lopez fight, because he's almost always worth the price of admission. What I do mind is buying a pay-per-view that's so clearly intended to set up a bigger one down the road.
Such is the case with Saturday's Latin Fury 12 (subtitled Island Warriors) as Juanma and co-featured star Yuriorkis Gamboa are definitely being positioned to fight each other, perhaps next year. Since local favorite John Duddy is also in action, this card strikes me as one that would be better to attend in person than watch on TV.
But I digress. To get to a Lopez-Gamboa showdown, it would help if both men win on Saturday. Juanma's foe, Rogers Mtagwa, doesn't have anything on his resume that makes one think he'll be much of a challenge. I'm saying Lopez by KO inside of five rounds.
Whyber Garcia, the man facing Gamboa, also seems like light work. He's twice before been a KO victim for undefeated boxers: to Edwin Valero in 2006 and Jorge Linares last year. Let's say it'll be three for three and go with Gamboa by mid-round KO.
I should mention that the most interesting fight on the card may be a heavyweight bout that has switched participants multiple times. Cuban Odlanier Solis is the constant; he was originally supposed to fight Kevin Johnson, got switched to Fres Oquendo and has ended up with Monte Barrett.
Solis has yet to show he was worth the hype he got beginning his pro career, and he seems to be a student of the pre-Klitschko Chris Arreola school of conditioning. I actually think he caught a break not facing Oquendo, because Fast Fres has enough left in the tank to be a real headache.
Barrett can certainly bang, but appearing as a late replacement may neutralize any cardio advantage he'd have. Solis has never gone ten rounds as a pro, so who knows what happens if the fight goes the distance?
I'm taking Solis by late TKO, but that's a pick made without a whole lot of confidence.
Posted by The Franchise
I don't mind paying money to watch Juan Manuel Lopez fight, because he's almost always worth the price of admission. What I do mind is buying a pay-per-view that's so clearly intended to set up a bigger one down the road.
Such is the case with Saturday's Latin Fury 12 (subtitled Island Warriors) as Juanma and co-featured star Yuriorkis Gamboa are definitely being positioned to fight each other, perhaps next year. Since local favorite John Duddy is also in action, this card strikes me as one that would be better to attend in person than watch on TV.
But I digress. To get to a Lopez-Gamboa showdown, it would help if both men win on Saturday. Juanma's foe, Rogers Mtagwa, doesn't have anything on his resume that makes one think he'll be much of a challenge. I'm saying Lopez by KO inside of five rounds.
Whyber Garcia, the man facing Gamboa, also seems like light work. He's twice before been a KO victim for undefeated boxers: to Edwin Valero in 2006 and Jorge Linares last year. Let's say it'll be three for three and go with Gamboa by mid-round KO.
I should mention that the most interesting fight on the card may be a heavyweight bout that has switched participants multiple times. Cuban Odlanier Solis is the constant; he was originally supposed to fight Kevin Johnson, got switched to Fres Oquendo and has ended up with Monte Barrett.
Solis has yet to show he was worth the hype he got beginning his pro career, and he seems to be a student of the pre-Klitschko Chris Arreola school of conditioning. I actually think he caught a break not facing Oquendo, because Fast Fres has enough left in the tank to be a real headache.
Barrett can certainly bang, but appearing as a late replacement may neutralize any cardio advantage he'd have. Solis has never gone ten rounds as a pro, so who knows what happens if the fight goes the distance?
I'm taking Solis by late TKO, but that's a pick made without a whole lot of confidence.
Posted by The Franchise
23.9.09
Vitali Klitschko vs. Chris Arreola: Predictions
The Franchise says...
On the surface, making a prediction for this weekend's WBC heavyweight title fight between Vitali Klitschko and Chris Arreola should be pretty easy. The elder Klitschko is taller, has a reach advantage and may have more power too. He has many more rounds boxed against top competition, and there's a nearly 100 percent chance his conditioning will be better than the usually cardio-averse Arreola.
So case closed, right? Yes... probably. I think Arreola has a shot to win, albeit not a huge one.
The Nightmare isn't without his own power, having knocked out 14 of the last 15 guys he's faced. He has a good chin, so it's not like Klitschko is going to send him to the canvas the first time he lands a power shot, and he has legit boxing skills - he's not a mere brawler.
There's also the fact that Vitali is 38 years old. Even though he has looked great in his two fights since returning after a hiatus from the sport that lasted nearly four years, boxers that age can get old at any time (except for Bernard Hopkins!).
You'd like the younger guy to be able to outlast the older one if that happens, but Arreola has never gone further than eight rounds, and rarely looks like he's trained to do so. That doesn't bode well for his upset hopes.
Arreola has a chance, but he's going to need to get in Dr. Ironfist's face early and shake him up. Assuming that doesn't happen, I see Klitschko winning by mid-round TKO.
Posted by The Franchise
On the surface, making a prediction for this weekend's WBC heavyweight title fight between Vitali Klitschko and Chris Arreola should be pretty easy. The elder Klitschko is taller, has a reach advantage and may have more power too. He has many more rounds boxed against top competition, and there's a nearly 100 percent chance his conditioning will be better than the usually cardio-averse Arreola.
So case closed, right? Yes... probably. I think Arreola has a shot to win, albeit not a huge one.
The Nightmare isn't without his own power, having knocked out 14 of the last 15 guys he's faced. He has a good chin, so it's not like Klitschko is going to send him to the canvas the first time he lands a power shot, and he has legit boxing skills - he's not a mere brawler.
There's also the fact that Vitali is 38 years old. Even though he has looked great in his two fights since returning after a hiatus from the sport that lasted nearly four years, boxers that age can get old at any time (except for Bernard Hopkins!).
You'd like the younger guy to be able to outlast the older one if that happens, but Arreola has never gone further than eight rounds, and rarely looks like he's trained to do so. That doesn't bode well for his upset hopes.
Arreola has a chance, but he's going to need to get in Dr. Ironfist's face early and shake him up. Assuming that doesn't happen, I see Klitschko winning by mid-round TKO.
Posted by The Franchise
17.9.09
Floyd Mayweather vs. Juan Manuel Marquez, Chris John vs. Rocky Juarez II: Predictions
The Franchise says...
A number of fights have come together over the last year or two that I never would have imagined I'd be seeing in my wildest dreams. Floyd Mayweather versus Juan Manuel Marquez certainly falls into that category, yet in a few days, that's exactly what we'll be watching.
I think JMM might be the best all-around boxer in the world at any weight, and by that I mean that while he might not be the fastest, toughest or most skilled, he's above average in every category. Though the prospect of his biggest payday ever can't be discounted, Marquez deserves all the credit in the world for agreeing to his fight, because he's in as tough as he's ever been.
For Floyd, there's really only two questions in my mind: will he be rusty after his brief retirement, and will he somehow feel like he needs to prove something and expose himself to more harm than usual? In order, my answers are doubtful, and he never has before.
Marquez is so savvy that I feel like he will be able to get to Mayweather, perhaps more often than many people suspect. But I can't get past the whole weight issue. Yes, Manny Pacquiao has been able to keep knocking people out while making rapid jumps through divisions, but JMM doesn't possess the same uncanny blend of speed and power that Pac-Man has. Even if his surgical counterpunching is in full evidence, I just can't see him hurting Floyd.
On the flip side, I see Money touching Marquez more often and wearing him down as the rounds pile up. JMM will leave everything in the ring, but ultimately Mayweather will get the victory via late TKO.
The card has another fight worth anticipating in the rematch between Chris John and Rocky Juarez. Their first meeting was a close one, though I scored it for John and felt he should have won.
The early rounds will be key to any Jaurez upset chance, because John was strong in the early going back in February. John has the height and the know-how to control the fight from the outside, and I expect he'll have success in doing so.
I can see this one turning out close again, but I like John to come away with a somewhat more decisive win. Since neither man has huge KO power, I feel John by unanimous decision is how it's going down.
Uatu says...
I agree all the way, except I am unsure whether or not I think JMM makes the final bell. I think JMM will keep trying to win and put pressure on no matter what the odds or situation in the fight, and he's going to have to eat punches to make that happen. But I see him applying that pressure more effectively than say, Ricky Hatton did, so maybe JMM loses by unanimous decision instead. Either way, I like Money May to win.
And I too like John by decision.
A number of fights have come together over the last year or two that I never would have imagined I'd be seeing in my wildest dreams. Floyd Mayweather versus Juan Manuel Marquez certainly falls into that category, yet in a few days, that's exactly what we'll be watching.
I think JMM might be the best all-around boxer in the world at any weight, and by that I mean that while he might not be the fastest, toughest or most skilled, he's above average in every category. Though the prospect of his biggest payday ever can't be discounted, Marquez deserves all the credit in the world for agreeing to his fight, because he's in as tough as he's ever been.
For Floyd, there's really only two questions in my mind: will he be rusty after his brief retirement, and will he somehow feel like he needs to prove something and expose himself to more harm than usual? In order, my answers are doubtful, and he never has before.
Marquez is so savvy that I feel like he will be able to get to Mayweather, perhaps more often than many people suspect. But I can't get past the whole weight issue. Yes, Manny Pacquiao has been able to keep knocking people out while making rapid jumps through divisions, but JMM doesn't possess the same uncanny blend of speed and power that Pac-Man has. Even if his surgical counterpunching is in full evidence, I just can't see him hurting Floyd.
On the flip side, I see Money touching Marquez more often and wearing him down as the rounds pile up. JMM will leave everything in the ring, but ultimately Mayweather will get the victory via late TKO.
The card has another fight worth anticipating in the rematch between Chris John and Rocky Juarez. Their first meeting was a close one, though I scored it for John and felt he should have won.
The early rounds will be key to any Jaurez upset chance, because John was strong in the early going back in February. John has the height and the know-how to control the fight from the outside, and I expect he'll have success in doing so.
I can see this one turning out close again, but I like John to come away with a somewhat more decisive win. Since neither man has huge KO power, I feel John by unanimous decision is how it's going down.
Uatu says...
I agree all the way, except I am unsure whether or not I think JMM makes the final bell. I think JMM will keep trying to win and put pressure on no matter what the odds or situation in the fight, and he's going to have to eat punches to make that happen. But I see him applying that pressure more effectively than say, Ricky Hatton did, so maybe JMM loses by unanimous decision instead. Either way, I like Money May to win.
And I too like John by decision.
10.9.09
Weekend Predictions: Kessler-Perdomo, Ward-Pudwill, Calderon-Mayol
The Franchise says...
If you've never seen Mikkel Kessler fight or you just want to get yourself psyched up about Andre Ward's chances in the Super Six World Boxing Classic, you may want to tune into Showtime on Saturday. Otherwise, there doesn't seem to be much of a compelling reason to watch both top super middleweights tune up for the tournament.
On paper, Ward should have the easier time. His opponent, Shelby Pudwill, is almost a decade older, has little power (nine KOs in 22 career wins) and has fought just once since John Duddy knocked him out in the first round three and a half years ago. Yikes.
Unless Ward is looking past his foe to a greater degree than anyone in recent memory, he should have a short night. S.O.G. wins by KO in four rounds or less.
And what do we know about the man Kessler will be facing, Gusmyr Perdomo? Well, he's a lefty with some pop. He's never been knocked out, and he has a cool nickname: the Azucar Torpedo.
I've never seen Perdomo fight, but he hasn't faced anyone with the Viking Warrior's combination of skill and toughness. Just taking a stab at this one, but I see Kessler winning by TKO, thought it may take him longer than Ward.
If you feel like ponying up for a pay-per-view, you can skip the super middleweight tune-ups and watch Ivan Calderon's rematch with Rodel Mayol. The first fight ended as a technical draw, which was fortunate for the undefeated Iron Boy because he looked like he was on his way to his first 'L.'
Having finally seen footage of the first go-round, I can say that Mayol was younger, busier and bigger. None of those things have changed in the last three months.
Calderon has had an incredible run, making double digit successful title defenses at 105 before moving up to 108 and embarking on a nice run there as well. He's crafty enough that you feel like he'll find some answers to the problems that Mayol gave him last time. As we all know, though, Calderon doesn't have the power to end things early, meaning he'll have to be virtually perfect to win.
I hate picking against him, but all things come to an end. Mayol wins by unanimous decision.
Posted by The Franchise
If you've never seen Mikkel Kessler fight or you just want to get yourself psyched up about Andre Ward's chances in the Super Six World Boxing Classic, you may want to tune into Showtime on Saturday. Otherwise, there doesn't seem to be much of a compelling reason to watch both top super middleweights tune up for the tournament.
On paper, Ward should have the easier time. His opponent, Shelby Pudwill, is almost a decade older, has little power (nine KOs in 22 career wins) and has fought just once since John Duddy knocked him out in the first round three and a half years ago. Yikes.
Unless Ward is looking past his foe to a greater degree than anyone in recent memory, he should have a short night. S.O.G. wins by KO in four rounds or less.
And what do we know about the man Kessler will be facing, Gusmyr Perdomo? Well, he's a lefty with some pop. He's never been knocked out, and he has a cool nickname: the Azucar Torpedo.
I've never seen Perdomo fight, but he hasn't faced anyone with the Viking Warrior's combination of skill and toughness. Just taking a stab at this one, but I see Kessler winning by TKO, thought it may take him longer than Ward.
If you feel like ponying up for a pay-per-view, you can skip the super middleweight tune-ups and watch Ivan Calderon's rematch with Rodel Mayol. The first fight ended as a technical draw, which was fortunate for the undefeated Iron Boy because he looked like he was on his way to his first 'L.'
Having finally seen footage of the first go-round, I can say that Mayol was younger, busier and bigger. None of those things have changed in the last three months.
Calderon has had an incredible run, making double digit successful title defenses at 105 before moving up to 108 and embarking on a nice run there as well. He's crafty enough that you feel like he'll find some answers to the problems that Mayol gave him last time. As we all know, though, Calderon doesn't have the power to end things early, meaning he'll have to be virtually perfect to win.
I hate picking against him, but all things come to an end. Mayol wins by unanimous decision.
Posted by The Franchise
26.8.09
Juan Urango vs. Randall Bailey, Tavoris Cloud vs. Clinton Woods: Predictions
The Franchise says...
The quality of the main events on Friday Night Fights has had its ups and downs, but it's hard not to like two title fights on one show for the season finale. Juan Urango and Randall Bailey will clash for the IBF's belt at 140 pounds, while Tavoris Cloud and Clinton Woods do the same thing at light heavyweight.
Urango is one of those guys who seems like he's good enough to fight his way into title contention but not quite good enough to beat any legitimately top-ranked boxers. The Colombian southpaw has just two career losses, to Ricky Hatton and Andre Berto, but he was clearly outclassed in both cases, winning only about three or four total rounds.
Fortunately for him, Bailey is much the same. I had to look up when his loss to Miguel Cotto was, and it was longer ago than I thought (2004). He's actually 11-1 since then, but none of his fights have come against elite competition, and his last loss came against a guy (Herman Ngoudjo) that Urango beat easily.
We all know the transitive property doesn't apply to boxing, but I like Urango anyway. I think it's going to be catch or be caught for Bailey, and even though he certainly has the power to end things, I think he'll also prove the easier to hit.
It should be a competitive fight, but I see Bailey down on points and pressing, allowing Urango to strike for a late KO win.
The co-feature could be a showcase for the 19-0 Cloud, a personal favorite of mine thanks to his swing-for-the-fences style. If you like seeing punches that look like they are intended to knock someone's head off, he's your man.
He's also been inactive for slightly more than a year and is going up against his toughest foe to date in Woods. That's normally a recipe for disaster, and we've seen our fair share of young undefeated fighters stumble in the last year or two.
Still, Woods isn't getting any younger at 37 and will be giving away something noticeable in speed and athleticism. He's taller and has a longer reach and his best bet would seem to be out-boxing Cloud from the outside.
My guess is Tavoris isn't going to allow him to do that. I'm going with youth and energy in this one, and saying that unless the lay-off has dulled his edge too much, Cloud will emerge with a late-round KO.
Posted by The Franchise
The quality of the main events on Friday Night Fights has had its ups and downs, but it's hard not to like two title fights on one show for the season finale. Juan Urango and Randall Bailey will clash for the IBF's belt at 140 pounds, while Tavoris Cloud and Clinton Woods do the same thing at light heavyweight.
Urango is one of those guys who seems like he's good enough to fight his way into title contention but not quite good enough to beat any legitimately top-ranked boxers. The Colombian southpaw has just two career losses, to Ricky Hatton and Andre Berto, but he was clearly outclassed in both cases, winning only about three or four total rounds.
Fortunately for him, Bailey is much the same. I had to look up when his loss to Miguel Cotto was, and it was longer ago than I thought (2004). He's actually 11-1 since then, but none of his fights have come against elite competition, and his last loss came against a guy (Herman Ngoudjo) that Urango beat easily.
We all know the transitive property doesn't apply to boxing, but I like Urango anyway. I think it's going to be catch or be caught for Bailey, and even though he certainly has the power to end things, I think he'll also prove the easier to hit.
It should be a competitive fight, but I see Bailey down on points and pressing, allowing Urango to strike for a late KO win.
The co-feature could be a showcase for the 19-0 Cloud, a personal favorite of mine thanks to his swing-for-the-fences style. If you like seeing punches that look like they are intended to knock someone's head off, he's your man.
He's also been inactive for slightly more than a year and is going up against his toughest foe to date in Woods. That's normally a recipe for disaster, and we've seen our fair share of young undefeated fighters stumble in the last year or two.
Still, Woods isn't getting any younger at 37 and will be giving away something noticeable in speed and athleticism. He's taller and has a longer reach and his best bet would seem to be out-boxing Cloud from the outside.
My guess is Tavoris isn't going to allow him to do that. I'm going with youth and energy in this one, and saying that unless the lay-off has dulled his edge too much, Cloud will emerge with a late-round KO.
Posted by The Franchise
20.8.09
Juan Diaz vs. Paulie Malignaggi, Malcolm Klassen vs. Robert Guerrero, Danny Jacobs vs. Ishe Smith: Predictions
The Franchise says...
There's no such thing as a "must-win" bout in boxing, but we are going to be seeing a "damn-close-to-must-win" fight for both sides of HBO's main event this Saturday.
Juan Diaz gets to fight before his hometown fans in Houston, trying to right the ship after going 1-2 (and the one win was by split decision) in his last three fights. Smart, articulate and offensively talented - but defensively suspect - the Baby Bull was Victor Ortiz before Victor Ortiz, and has even more soul-searching to do at this point.
His opponent Paulie Malignaggi has actually seen his rise through the sport stopped twice: once after losing to Miguel Cotto in 2006 and again after his TKO loss to Ricky Hatton last November. There's certainly no shame in having those two gentlemen hand you your only two defeats, but the Magic Man seems to go to the back of the line more than most after taking an 'L.'
I think it's pretty well established at this point that Diaz only knows one way to fight. He's going to come forward and throw lots of punches. If that doesn't work, there's no Plan B. His chin is probably the best part of his defense, though as Juan Manuel Marquez proved, it has its limits.
Malignaggi is the bigger question mark. He's known as a light-hitting slickster (and that's being generous, as under 20 percent of his wins came via KO), but he curiously allowed Hatton to out-box him for most of their fight. He's naturally bigger and taller, though it remains to be seen if those qualities do him any good keeping Diaz out of his face.
It's not like Malignaggi can't win this fight, especially if he's able to consistently outmanuever Diaz or withstand an early barrage and pile up points down the stretch. It's just that his margin or error is so slim that the odds are against him being able to pull it off.
Diaz has found out that against the very best competition, what he does best isn't quite good enough. But Paulie is a step down from the likes of JMM and Nate Campbell, so I like the Baby Bull to win by late TKO.
In the co-feature, Robert Guerrero attempts to take the IBF super featherweight title from Malcolm Klassen after making a slight lightweight detour his last time out. After fighting just once in 2008, The Ghost has been a busy man, as this is already his fourth fight this year.
Klassen will make his first appearance in the U.S. after fighting all but one of his previous bouts in his native South Africa. He's fought just good enough competition to suggest he's not a stiff, and though he has four career losses, they've all come by the scorecards.
It's hard to break this one down having never seen Klassen fight, but the consensus opinion among boxing writers is that this will be the best guy Guerrero has faced to this point. Still, there's no reason to think that if he brings his 'A' game, he won't come out on top, and he's been fairly consistent in that regard in 2009. Guerrero wins by late KO.
HBO is also giving us a rare treat with a third televised fight, as undefeated Danny Jacobs tangles with Ishe Smith.
Fans have been waiting to see the 22-year old Jacobs take a step up in competition, but this may not qualify in that regard. Once upon a time Smith seemed to be a future title challenger, but that was probably five years ago, even before his unsuccessful attempt to win the first season of The Contender.
Jacobs got a little testy defending this fight on his Twitter feed, but he certainly appears to be taking the fight seriously, even if it isn't likely Ishe will have the power to hurt him. What Smith may have is enough veteran craftiness to go the distance.
But that's okay because the Golden Child has never gone ten rounds, so we may learn something about him in the process. Smith will learn that the younger man is too fast and too strong, and Jacobs will roll to an easy decision.
Posted by The Franchise
There's no such thing as a "must-win" bout in boxing, but we are going to be seeing a "damn-close-to-must-win" fight for both sides of HBO's main event this Saturday.
Juan Diaz gets to fight before his hometown fans in Houston, trying to right the ship after going 1-2 (and the one win was by split decision) in his last three fights. Smart, articulate and offensively talented - but defensively suspect - the Baby Bull was Victor Ortiz before Victor Ortiz, and has even more soul-searching to do at this point.
His opponent Paulie Malignaggi has actually seen his rise through the sport stopped twice: once after losing to Miguel Cotto in 2006 and again after his TKO loss to Ricky Hatton last November. There's certainly no shame in having those two gentlemen hand you your only two defeats, but the Magic Man seems to go to the back of the line more than most after taking an 'L.'
I think it's pretty well established at this point that Diaz only knows one way to fight. He's going to come forward and throw lots of punches. If that doesn't work, there's no Plan B. His chin is probably the best part of his defense, though as Juan Manuel Marquez proved, it has its limits.
Malignaggi is the bigger question mark. He's known as a light-hitting slickster (and that's being generous, as under 20 percent of his wins came via KO), but he curiously allowed Hatton to out-box him for most of their fight. He's naturally bigger and taller, though it remains to be seen if those qualities do him any good keeping Diaz out of his face.
It's not like Malignaggi can't win this fight, especially if he's able to consistently outmanuever Diaz or withstand an early barrage and pile up points down the stretch. It's just that his margin or error is so slim that the odds are against him being able to pull it off.
Diaz has found out that against the very best competition, what he does best isn't quite good enough. But Paulie is a step down from the likes of JMM and Nate Campbell, so I like the Baby Bull to win by late TKO.
In the co-feature, Robert Guerrero attempts to take the IBF super featherweight title from Malcolm Klassen after making a slight lightweight detour his last time out. After fighting just once in 2008, The Ghost has been a busy man, as this is already his fourth fight this year.
Klassen will make his first appearance in the U.S. after fighting all but one of his previous bouts in his native South Africa. He's fought just good enough competition to suggest he's not a stiff, and though he has four career losses, they've all come by the scorecards.
It's hard to break this one down having never seen Klassen fight, but the consensus opinion among boxing writers is that this will be the best guy Guerrero has faced to this point. Still, there's no reason to think that if he brings his 'A' game, he won't come out on top, and he's been fairly consistent in that regard in 2009. Guerrero wins by late KO.
HBO is also giving us a rare treat with a third televised fight, as undefeated Danny Jacobs tangles with Ishe Smith.
Fans have been waiting to see the 22-year old Jacobs take a step up in competition, but this may not qualify in that regard. Once upon a time Smith seemed to be a future title challenger, but that was probably five years ago, even before his unsuccessful attempt to win the first season of The Contender.
Jacobs got a little testy defending this fight on his Twitter feed, but he certainly appears to be taking the fight seriously, even if it isn't likely Ishe will have the power to hurt him. What Smith may have is enough veteran craftiness to go the distance.
But that's okay because the Golden Child has never gone ten rounds, so we may learn something about him in the process. Smith will learn that the younger man is too fast and too strong, and Jacobs will roll to an easy decision.
Posted by The Franchise
13.8.09
Weekend Predictions: Jones-Lacy, Donaire-R. Concepcion, Luevano-B. Concepcion
The Franchise says...
I've got a confession to make: I've never been a Roy Jones fan.
Don't get me wrong. I've appreciated his physical gifts, and I've certainly seen him do things in the ring I've never seen anyone else do.
But Roy's prime coincided with the early part of my time as a serious boxing fan, and something about him just put me off. I think it was the way he tried to sell some of his lesser opponents as serious contenders when they clearly were anything but.
Maybe if he had just been a little more honest about what he was doing, I'd have rooted for him. I can't say for sure, but I will say that when Antonio Tarver (someone who inspires his own strong feelings from fans) knocked him out during their second fight, I was giddy. I felt that way watching him get starched by Glen Johnson too.
It's strange then, that I have more respect for Jones now at age 40. Unless he's got serious financial issues, he's still boxing because he wants to, and you can't be mad at that.
The really interesting thing is that since Jones relied on his physical gifts so much and never honed his craft the way a Bernard Hopkins did, I'd have guessed he'd be completely done before now. Yet he's taking on a semi-legitimate foe in Jeff Lacy this weekend.
The consensus opinion is that Jones is too old. Heck, Oscar De La Hoya thinks so, and he should know about when the end is obvious. If the Golden Boy is right, Jones is going to suffer his third career KO loss, because Lacy is built like a tank.
Somehow I don't think so though. Maybe it's because I haven't ever been able to get Lacy's destruction at the hands of Joe Calzaghe out of my head, but I think it's even more telling the way he was outclassed by Jermain Taylor last November. Taylor has been going life or death with everyone, and Lacy almost got shut out.
As long as Roy can still stick and move for 12 rounds and avoid getting lured into any protracted exchanges, I think he can pull this off. I like Jones by decision, and then he'll either try for Anderson Silva or fight one more boxer before retiring.
Since I babbled so long about Jones-Lacy, I'll keep it brief for the other big Saturday fights. I think Nonito Donaire's star is going to continue to rise, so I'll say the Filipino Flash will knock out Rafael Concepcion. Too much speed and power.
I'm more conflicted about the Steven Luevano-Bernabe Concepcion fight. I've seen Luevano's last three fights, and though there's no question he can box, he seems to make things more difficult than they need to be. You can certainly drop him if you get to him, though he has never been KOed.
Bernabe has a lot of pro rounds under his belt for someone so young, and he has what it takes to put Luevano down and keep him there. But he's never fought anyone this good before, so we'll learn something about him for sure.
I think this one's a toss-up, so just to avoid looking like a total homer (remember, the BoxingWatchers are all part-Filipino!), I'll go with Luevano by narrow decision. I wouldn't put money on it though.
Posted by The Franchise
I've got a confession to make: I've never been a Roy Jones fan.
Don't get me wrong. I've appreciated his physical gifts, and I've certainly seen him do things in the ring I've never seen anyone else do.
But Roy's prime coincided with the early part of my time as a serious boxing fan, and something about him just put me off. I think it was the way he tried to sell some of his lesser opponents as serious contenders when they clearly were anything but.
Maybe if he had just been a little more honest about what he was doing, I'd have rooted for him. I can't say for sure, but I will say that when Antonio Tarver (someone who inspires his own strong feelings from fans) knocked him out during their second fight, I was giddy. I felt that way watching him get starched by Glen Johnson too.
It's strange then, that I have more respect for Jones now at age 40. Unless he's got serious financial issues, he's still boxing because he wants to, and you can't be mad at that.
The really interesting thing is that since Jones relied on his physical gifts so much and never honed his craft the way a Bernard Hopkins did, I'd have guessed he'd be completely done before now. Yet he's taking on a semi-legitimate foe in Jeff Lacy this weekend.
The consensus opinion is that Jones is too old. Heck, Oscar De La Hoya thinks so, and he should know about when the end is obvious. If the Golden Boy is right, Jones is going to suffer his third career KO loss, because Lacy is built like a tank.
Somehow I don't think so though. Maybe it's because I haven't ever been able to get Lacy's destruction at the hands of Joe Calzaghe out of my head, but I think it's even more telling the way he was outclassed by Jermain Taylor last November. Taylor has been going life or death with everyone, and Lacy almost got shut out.
As long as Roy can still stick and move for 12 rounds and avoid getting lured into any protracted exchanges, I think he can pull this off. I like Jones by decision, and then he'll either try for Anderson Silva or fight one more boxer before retiring.
Since I babbled so long about Jones-Lacy, I'll keep it brief for the other big Saturday fights. I think Nonito Donaire's star is going to continue to rise, so I'll say the Filipino Flash will knock out Rafael Concepcion. Too much speed and power.
I'm more conflicted about the Steven Luevano-Bernabe Concepcion fight. I've seen Luevano's last three fights, and though there's no question he can box, he seems to make things more difficult than they need to be. You can certainly drop him if you get to him, though he has never been KOed.
Bernabe has a lot of pro rounds under his belt for someone so young, and he has what it takes to put Luevano down and keep him there. But he's never fought anyone this good before, so we'll learn something about him for sure.
I think this one's a toss-up, so just to avoid looking like a total homer (remember, the BoxingWatchers are all part-Filipino!), I'll go with Luevano by narrow decision. I wouldn't put money on it though.
Posted by The Franchise
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