Predictions: Pavlik-Lockett, Quintana-Williams, Forrest-Mora

The Franchise says...

When you've taken on Edison Miranda and Jermain Taylor - twice - in your last three fights, I suppose it's only fitting that you've earned yourself a little bit of a reprieve. That seems to be what middleweight champ Kelly Pavlik is getting himself this weekend when he faces Gary Lockett, who is making his first appearance in the United States to take on The Ghost.

Can't say I know too much about Lockett except that Pavlik himself says he has a good right hand. The champ's defense is adequate but not great, meaning he is there to be hit at times - one of the things that makes his style exciting. So I suppose at worst, Lockett has a puncher's chance of pulling off the upset.

Pavlik has advantages in height, reach and youth, so the only real worry would be if he is looking past this fight. Say, to a possible big money bout with Joe Calzaghe. But that doesn't seem to be very likely with the Pride of Youngstown, and our own Spartan117 has a source close to Pavlik who assures us that he is taking the fight "very seriously."

That all adds up to bad news for Lockett. Thanks for coming to Atlantic City, but I see The Ghost sending him back across the pond with a mid-round KO.

The most intriguing fight on Saturday is actually over on Showtime, as Paul Williams tries to avenge his lone defeat as a pro against Carlos Quintana. The first fight between these two men was extremely close: two of the three of us here at BoxingWatchers.com actually scored it a draw, though all three official judges liked Quintana.

Conventional wisdom was sort of turned on its ear in that one too, as the lanky Williams usually got the better of the action on the inside while Quintana boxed more effectively. It definitely seemed like Williams could not hurt his foe, and a lot of his punches were of the slappy variety.

In most of Williams' fights, opponents simply have no answer for his volume and the strange angles his height provides. Quintana did, and The Punisher didn't seem to have another plan of attack. Could he and his team have developed one in the last few months? That will be the question of the night.

I'm learning the hard way that you need more than a gut feeling to pick the losing fighter to win in a rematch (see Pavlik-Taylor II, Margarito-Cintron II). With that in mind, I'm taking Quintana by another close decision.

Also on Showtime is another intriguing fight that sees Vernon Forrest put his WBO junior middleweight belt up against former Contender winner Sergio Mora. Most experts aren't giving Mora much chance of pulling off the upset, but one of my favorite boxing scribes, Doug Fischer of Maxboxing.com, thinks the Latin Snake has a definite shot. And when Dougie talks, I listen.

After two losses to Ricardo Mayorga derailed his career back in 2003, Forrest has looked much better in recent times. He's been in against better competition than Mora, has an awkward style that is tough to deal with (just ask Shane Mosley) and is perceived to have a big edge in power - though to be fair, he's never been known as a devastating KO artist.

Mora is moving down one weight class after campaigning at 160 in his previous fights. As long as that doesn't drain him, I expect him to have a speed advantage, and he'll need it because nothing would shock me more than if he knocks The Viper out.

Forrest has been extremely confident during the build-up to the fight, but you have to wonder if he's privately a little concerned that Father Time is bearing down on him at age 37. I think he'll have a tougher time with this one than he or many others may suspect, though I like Forrest to pull out a unanimous decision.

Uatu says...
Uatu cannot honestly assess Lockett, other than by boxrec.com. Nonetheless, he's going to make a prediction anyway. Purely based on the fact that he thinks that Pavlik is the goods, and that Pavlik is too aggressive to let a lesser fighter steal a decision, and based on the fact that Bob Arum ok'd the matchup in the first place, Pavlik by KO early.

Quintana barely beat Williams. Quintana caught Paul at the right place, right time. This time, Williams gets it done. Williams convincing decision.

Forrest is getting old. Mora has maybe gotten stale. Mora probably can't knock down or rattle Forrest, but, Uatu thinks he could take it by outworking Forrest. This is a tough call and an interesting fight. Forrest should be able to completely outclass him, but this a big chance for credibility for the Latin Snake. Uatu likes Mora by decision.

Twenty-Twenty Hindsight: Punisher Needs New Plan, Berto Needs Tougher Foes

Hats off to Carlos Quintana. He fought a heck of a fight Saturday night against Paul Williams, and even though I scored it a draw, I certainly have no problem with the judges scoring seven or eight of the rounds for the new champ. Certainly, Quintana won several rounds decisively, while a couple of rounds I gave to Williams could have gone either way.

It's funny that in the pre-fight show, Williams scoffed at the notion that it was his style that gave his opponents fits. Turns out that assessment may have more astute than The Punisher would like to admit, because Quintana had the answer for his style, and there really didn't seem to be anything Williams could do about it. Like The Punisher of comic book fame, Williams' instinct is to come out guns blazing. The difference is that Frank Castle has a whole wealth of other tricks at his disposal, while Williams doesn't seem to have a back-up plan if his overwhelming firepower falls flat.

Except for some rounds where he showed increased head movement, Williams looked lost on defense, as Quintana was able to find the mark with numerous left hands. He's also in trouble if he falls behind on points, because as the HBO announce team correctly pointed out, he doesn't have the power to turn a fight around with a single punch.

While The Punisher goes back to the drawing board, no such retooling is needed for Andre Berto, who made overmatched Michel Trabant quit after six rounds. The funniest comment on the night, made by HBO ringside scorer Harold Lederman, was also quite true: Berto hit Trabant with every punch known to man.

Berto is blessed with both skill and natural athleticism, but until he fights some tougher opposition, we won't know exactly where he stands. My brother Uatu text-messaged me after the fight to ask if I thought Berto would beat Quintana. My answer: not yet. But one more fight against a more talented boxer and I might change my mind.

Or even better, why don't Quintana and Berto just fight each other and then we'll know for sure?

Round By Round: Williams Vs. Quintana

We're wasting no time tonight with the main event fight featuring Paul "The Punisher" Williams and Carlos Quintana. Williams comes in unofficially at 164; Quintana at 158. That gives Williams a weight advantage to go with his height and work rate advantages.

Williams going with the mohawk tonight!

Round 1

Quintana landing to the body but he has to hop in to do it. He's pushing the fight and lands a left inside. Nice combo in return by Williams. Another good left upstairs by Quintana. Lots of tie-ups by Quintana which is smart strategy. Right inside by Quintana in the middle of a nice exchange.

Franchise: Quintana 10-9
Spartan117: Williams 10-9
Uatu: Quintana 10-9

Round 2

Williams comes out jabbing. He's showing more head movement on defense as well. Quintana moving well and picking his spots to come inside behind the left. Combo to the body by Quintana before they tie up. Straight right by Quintana. Big left to the head and follow-up to the body and Williams has no clue at this point. Quintana fighting such a smart fight right now.

Franchise: Quintana 10-9
Spartan117: Quintana 10-9
Uatu: Quintana 10-9

Round 3

Williams lands a right hand. He's coming forward more now but has not solved his foe. Both guys showing some grit along the ropes. Williams starting to push the pace, which he needs to do. Ref really letting them go in clinches which benefits Quintana. First good combo by Williams but Quintana comes right back. Williams backs Quintana into the corner at the bell and that was a close round.

Franchise: Williams 10-9
Spartan117: Williams 10-9
Uatu: Quintana 10-9

Round 4

Quintana just avoids some big shots; both guys are scoring with jabs. Good left upstairs by Quintana but he eats return fire. Some swelling on Williams' face now. Right hand lands for Quintana. Two-punch combo lands for Williams. He gets tagged coming in and Quintana avoids the counter-punches. Brief flurry at the bell by Williams. Close again but Quintana landed the harder shots.

Franchise: Quintana 10-9
Spartan117: Williams 10-9
Uatu: Williams 10-9

Round 5

Quintana rushes in with a big right. Good left may be Williams' best punch so far. Quintana able to tie up at all the right times. He goes to the body now. Uppercuts inside by Williams. Looping left still landing occasionally by Quintana, but he does seem to be slowing. Not much of consequence either way but Williams may have won it on pure work rate.

Franchise: Williams 10-9
Spartan117: Williams 10-9
Uatu: Williams 10-9

Round 6

Quick tie up and they pound on each other in the clinch. Stick and move by Quintana but Williams finds the range with a left to the head. He comes in and Quintana has to run away. Quintana hits with a left and ties up repeatedly. Another nice left upstairs. Williams responds to the body. Kellerman says Williams may have an inside advantage, strangely enough. Left hand and a right to the body by The Punisher. Close round with Williams rallying late.

Franchise: Quintana 10-9
Spartan117: Quintana 10-9
Uatu: Williams 10-9

Round 7

Lederman has it even after six rounds. Quick left bu Quintana but it is losing some snap. Definite swelling under Williams' right hand. Quintana eats punches from both hands. Both guys score with left hands upstairs. A lot of wrestling now. Quick right makes Quintana wince. They trade in the middle of the ring and Williams scoring with more punches. Right uppercut right before the bell and with the pace quickened it's bad news for Quintana.

Franchise: Williams 10-9
Spartan117: Quintana 10-9
Uatu: Williams 10-9

Round 8

Light punches land by Williams. He hits Quintana coming out of the clinch. Quintana still gamely throwing lefts but more of them are missing their mark. Three-punch combo lands from Williams but no real damage done. Announcers discuss the cuts on William's face; he still looks okay though. Jabs and right hooks finding the target for Williams.

Franchise: Williams 10-9
Spartan117: Williams 10-9
Uatu: Williams 10-9

Round 9

Left by Quintana but he's stung in return. Continuous left uppercuts by Williams in the clinch. Both men land combos; Quintana is forced back. Strong left by Quintana, the question us whether he can put anything with it. Williams landing frequently with the jab and now both guys trade shots. Blood flowing from both of Williams' eyes now. Nice right hand bu Quintana and he moves well to end the round.

Franchise: Quintana 10-9
Spartan117: Quintana 10-9
Uatu: Quintana 10-9

Round 10

Three rounds to go and it would not surprise me if this fight is up in the air with the judges. Tentative start to this round. Quintana picking his spots though he is getting hit in return almost every time. Now he scores again with a left upstairs. Williams backs him up with repeated jabs. There's a left by Quintana and a combo in return by Williams. Inside shots by Quintana and he gets hit by a combo again. Slappy punches at the end of the tenth, that's another close round.

Franchise: Quintana 10-9
Spartan117: Williams 10-9
Uatu: Quintana 10-9

Round 11

Williams starts out strong as Lederman has it tied up right now. Both guys trade and Quintana has rediscovered some of his earlier power. A boatload of wrestling in the corner. Williams out-working Quintana in this round with only a minute to go. They stand and trade with Quintana landing harder shots but Williams landing more. That round could have gone either way.

Franchise: Williams 10-9
Spartan117: Quintana 10-9
Uatu: Quintana 10-9

Round 12

Quintana looked confident on his stool between rounds. Both men look like they will go for broke here. Nice right hand by Quintana. Strafing right hand by Williams and low left by Quintana. Ref checks cuts on both men. A lot of wrestling breaking up the flow. Body shots both ways. Williams definitely trying to go after his foe but Quintana is too cagey to get trapped. Nice exchange with Quintana smothering the champ when necessary. Williams lands right before the bell and he may have done enough to win that last round.

Franchise: Williams 10-9
Spartan117: 10-10
Uatu: Williams 10-9

A very nice effort by Quintana and a difficult decision for the judges, I would think.

Franchise and Uatu score it a draw 114-114; Spartan117 scores it 115-114 for Williams; The judges score it 115-113, 116-112 and 116-112, all for the new WBO welterweight champion Carlos Quintana.

Williams-Quintana and Berto-Trabant Round By Round Coverage Tonight

Make sure you visit BoxingWatchers.com later tonight for live round by round coverage of Paul "The Punisher" Williams versus Carlos Quintana. We'll also bring you the main undercard fight featuring rising star Andre Berto.

Predictions: Williams-Quintana and Berto-Trabant

Uatu does not see it necessary to wait for the weigh-ins as is his usual practice. Williams TKO late. Berto KO early.

The Franchise says...

Paul Williams feels like he should be in a position to fight some of the sport's biggest names, but instead he's stuck with a less well-known opponent who happens to be no pushover. In this situation, boxers can either use the perceived slight as motivation or sulk and get beaten by overlooking the man they're actually fighting. I'm guessing we'll see the former from The Punisher.

Quintana is a rugged customer who gave Miguel Cotto a pretty decent scrap for five rounds back in late 2006. But Williams has big advantages in height and reach, has a relentless punch output and youth is on his side. He may have a little trouble getting Quintana out of there, so I'm going with Williams UD 12.

As for Berto, this is the kind of fight he simply must win, and win convincingly, if he's going to continue his rise to stardom. Judging by the lack of recognizable names his opponent Michel Trabant has fought, there's no reason to think Berto won't take care of business. Berto by KO.

Ducked Versus Feared: The Paul Williams Dilemma

Who is the most ducked boxer in the sport today? I think it may be Miguel Cotto, who seems to have done everything necessary to prove himself a worthy foil for the Mayweathers and De La Hoyas of the boxing world. But Steve Kim of Maxboxing.com nominated another top candidate in his column today: WBO welterweight champion Paul "The Punisher" Williams.

He'd love to fight Cotto, Floyd or Oscar. Unfortunately for boxing fans, none of those matches look like they will take place any time soon. That's evidence in and of itself that he's being ducked, but as promoter Dan Goosen tells Kim, it may be more than that: the big names in the sport may be afraid to fight him.

Not just because they'd lose to Williams, though since he's 33-0 with 24 knockouts, there's always that possibility. Today's most famous boxers are hesitant to fight guys like Williams because they see it as a lose-lose proposition.

Take Floyd Mayweather, for example. Williams' trainer mentions in the column that Paul and Floyd fight at or near the same weight, and though PBF calls himself the best pound-for-pound boxer in the world, he won't fight The Punisher. I agree with his reasoning, but it's also not hard for me to see what Floyd sees.

Aside from the fact that a Mayweather-Williams fight wouldn't make the kind of money PBF looks for every time out at this point of his career - because Williams isn't well-known among the general public - Mayweather has too little to gain by taking him on. If he would win, he'd be expected to so. If he would lose, it would be seen as a huge upset by casual fans - again, because they don't know his opponent too well.

But there's an additional element here too, because Floyd could win the fight and still look bad in the process. With Williams' height and high punch output, it would be extremely difficult to beat him and look good doing it. Fighters known to be defensive masters get avoided for a similar reason, but when you add in the added danger of Williams knocking you out, the risk to reward ratio just gets too high.

Toward the end of the column, Kim mentions that the only real option for Williams is to keep winning until other fighters can't help including him in their plans. As fans, all we can do is keep the faith and hope that the various motivations of boxers at different status levels in the sport align down the road and give us the fights we want to see.