Vegas Lines on Upcoming Fights

I recently returned from five days in Las Vegas, and while I wasn't busy redistributing money from the Tropicana to Planet Hollywood (thanks Pleasure Pit!), I thought it might be interesting to take a look at the lines on some upcoming fights. These lines were good as of June 20, and can and probably will change as some of these bouts get closer. This would be the place where I would steal ESPN's line about the lines being presented for educational purposes only if I was inclined to do so.

Without further ado...

Arthur Abraham (-200) vs. Edison Miranda (+170)

Yes, this fight has already taken place, but I threw it in here just to demonstrate that gamblers felt this one was fairly tough to call. Abraham actually opened at -220, meaning as fight day approached the line actually tightened up. Interestingly the prop bet on whether or not the fight would go the distance was -115 on both sides, suggesting that no one knew how the hell it would end.

Manny Pacquiao (-500) vs. David Diaz (+350)

To no one's surprise, Vegas has Diaz as a significant underdog. The sports books actually came up on Manny since the line opened, meaning even at +330 it was difficult to find enough backers for Diaz. Perhaps the lone acknowledgment that Pacman may have trouble closing Diaz out as he goes up in weight is seen in the prop bet on the fight not going 10 full rounds, which is available at even money.

Wladimir Klitschko (-600) vs. Tony Thompson (+400)

Gamblers must think Thompson is a live dog, as he actually opened at +450. I guess there's always a chance that Klitschko will go down for the count if he's tagged with the right shot, but if he fights Tony the same way he fought his last fight there is little chance of that. Then again, the prop betting has the fight not lasting nine rounds as the favorite, so someone must think Wlad is going to summon the courage to try to blast Thompson out of there. Here's hoping.

Miguel Cotto (-240) vs. Antonio Margarito (+190)

The opening line saw Cotto at -170, so people must have been backing him. If I was going to be in Vegas I'd be very tempted to throw some money on Margarito even though I favor Cotto (slightly) to win the fight. The distance prop bet is ten rounds and "will go" is the favorite, but I suppose that's logical since Cotto is undefeated and Margarito has never been knocked out. With the bombs these guys can throw though, I could also be talked into putting a few bucks on the "won't go" side.

1 comment:

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