Betting on Boxing: Miguel Cotto vs. Joshua Clottey

Now to go against my actual prediction.

Miguel Cotto is a huge name and is one of the most famous fighters in the game. Joshua Clottey is, in my opinion, as close to a nobody as there is in the boxing world outside of hardcore fans, despite his immense talent. I bet I could ask the entire amount of my 250 classmates who Clottey is and not one would know.

I imagine that more "uneducated" money would come in on an HBO-backed fighter like Cotto than Clottey. So there is the possibility for some skewed odds. Sort of like how Notre Dame football and the New York Yankees always have lower odds on them winning the championship than would seem appropriate, purely because they have way more people placing future bets on them as opposed to the Utah Utes and the Texas Rangers have. Add in the fact that Cotto has a rabid cultural fan base here in the States (and protectorates), and there will be even more money on Cotto.

As I mentioned in my fight prediciton, for the longest time I have thought that Clottey would win. Now I have changed my mind to predict Cotto by victory. How would I bet though? What are the actual odds?

Vegasinsider.com lists the odds as:

Cotto -365
Clottey + 285

This fight is very close to a pick 'em, so I like the bet on Clottey very much. The one thing that makes me nervous is the fact that this fight is in NYC on the eve of the Puerto Rican Day parade, and MSG will be 99% pro-Cotto. That could influence the judges, as every punch Cotto lands, or probably doesn't even land, will be met with thousands of raucous cheers. If this fight was in Vegas, then it would be a no-brainer bet on Clottey. However, even so, I still like the value of placing a bet on Clottey, despite the virtual home ring advantage for Cotto.

Posted by uatu

Betting the Marquez vs. Diaz Fight

After I made a prediction, I decided to check the current odds. Amazingly, the site I checked out, which I will not name since I am about to rip them, listed the fight as "Juan M Marquez vs. Julio Diaz" which is sort of an honest mistake, I guess, and listed the undercard fight as "Chris Byrd vs. Rocky Juarez" which is a much worse mistake. In that case, I'll take Chris Byrd -300, provided he can make weight.

Seriously though, on a different site, vegasinsider.com, Juan Diaz is an underdog, at +140, and since I picked him to win, as the slimmest of underdogs, I like the bet on him as well.

Looking over a few big fights upcoming, I don't think I would bet either way on Bradley-Holt
Bradley -170
Holt +140

But I like a bet on Manny as the favorite over Hatton.
Manny -250
Hatton +195.

My guess there is that there will be a lot of British fan money on Hatton making the odds closer than they deserve to be, and I like Manny to win anyway.

Posted by uatu

Live Vegas Odds on Hatton-Malignaggi and De La Hoya-Pacquiao

Normally we poach some odds with a link to a website. But BW's own Franchise is actually in Vegas as we speak! He is staying at the Planet Hollywood Casino, so presumably that's where these odds are from:

Hatton - 250
Paulie +200

Oscar -220
Manny +180

Once again, these aren't the official predictions, but betting strategies.

Paulie +200 is very attractive. It is not inconceivable that Paulie could outbox Hatton all night long. If you consider his inspired performance against Miguel Cotto, and if you consider Cotto to be the superior boxer to Hatton (which Uatu does), then there you go.

Manny +180 is also attractive for similar reasons, in that he has a really good chance of winning.

These are two fights, at least in Uatu's opinion, that will be highly contested and could go either way. So betting both underdogs would be his play. And right now, he is leaning towards actually predicting both men to win anyway.

Betting Odds on Jermain Taylor vs. Jeff Lacy

Just out of curiousity, Uatu took a look at http://www.docsports.com/ to check out the betting odds on Saturday's Jermain Taylor - Jeff Lacy fight on HBO. Usually, Uatu likes to take underdogs at a good price when he thinks the odds are longer than the real chances of the underdog winning. Normally taking the favorite is not worth it. Although he will reserve his official pick until later this week, he wanted to take a look at the odds for the opposite reason this time, because he is confident in Bad Intentions in this fight.

http://www.superbook.com/ had the best odds for Taylor.
Taylor -490
Lacy +430

So Taylor is a heavy favorite in this fight. Uatu was hoping for closer odds than this. Apparently, the oddsmakers have the same view of this fight. So, Uatu likes the play of taking Taylor, but not putting a whole lot of money on it, because Taylor is such a big favorite.

Odds on this Weekend's Showtime Fights

Just for the heck of it Uatu thought he would check out the odds for Saturday's fights because they are both intriguing match-ups.

from sportsbook.com
Dawson -265
Tarver +225

Vitali -170
Peter +140

Uatu likes a bet on Tarver in the first fight and an abstain in the second fight.

Vegas Lines on Upcoming Fights

I recently returned from five days in Las Vegas, and while I wasn't busy redistributing money from the Tropicana to Planet Hollywood (thanks Pleasure Pit!), I thought it might be interesting to take a look at the lines on some upcoming fights. These lines were good as of June 20, and can and probably will change as some of these bouts get closer. This would be the place where I would steal ESPN's line about the lines being presented for educational purposes only if I was inclined to do so.

Without further ado...

Arthur Abraham (-200) vs. Edison Miranda (+170)

Yes, this fight has already taken place, but I threw it in here just to demonstrate that gamblers felt this one was fairly tough to call. Abraham actually opened at -220, meaning as fight day approached the line actually tightened up. Interestingly the prop bet on whether or not the fight would go the distance was -115 on both sides, suggesting that no one knew how the hell it would end.

Manny Pacquiao (-500) vs. David Diaz (+350)

To no one's surprise, Vegas has Diaz as a significant underdog. The sports books actually came up on Manny since the line opened, meaning even at +330 it was difficult to find enough backers for Diaz. Perhaps the lone acknowledgment that Pacman may have trouble closing Diaz out as he goes up in weight is seen in the prop bet on the fight not going 10 full rounds, which is available at even money.

Wladimir Klitschko (-600) vs. Tony Thompson (+400)

Gamblers must think Thompson is a live dog, as he actually opened at +450. I guess there's always a chance that Klitschko will go down for the count if he's tagged with the right shot, but if he fights Tony the same way he fought his last fight there is little chance of that. Then again, the prop betting has the fight not lasting nine rounds as the favorite, so someone must think Wlad is going to summon the courage to try to blast Thompson out of there. Here's hoping.

Miguel Cotto (-240) vs. Antonio Margarito (+190)

The opening line saw Cotto at -170, so people must have been backing him. If I was going to be in Vegas I'd be very tempted to throw some money on Margarito even though I favor Cotto (slightly) to win the fight. The distance prop bet is ten rounds and "will go" is the favorite, but I suppose that's logical since Cotto is undefeated and Margarito has never been knocked out. With the bombs these guys can throw though, I could also be talked into putting a few bucks on the "won't go" side.