Betting on Boxing: Miguel Cotto vs. Joshua Clottey

Now to go against my actual prediction.

Miguel Cotto is a huge name and is one of the most famous fighters in the game. Joshua Clottey is, in my opinion, as close to a nobody as there is in the boxing world outside of hardcore fans, despite his immense talent. I bet I could ask the entire amount of my 250 classmates who Clottey is and not one would know.

I imagine that more "uneducated" money would come in on an HBO-backed fighter like Cotto than Clottey. So there is the possibility for some skewed odds. Sort of like how Notre Dame football and the New York Yankees always have lower odds on them winning the championship than would seem appropriate, purely because they have way more people placing future bets on them as opposed to the Utah Utes and the Texas Rangers have. Add in the fact that Cotto has a rabid cultural fan base here in the States (and protectorates), and there will be even more money on Cotto.

As I mentioned in my fight prediciton, for the longest time I have thought that Clottey would win. Now I have changed my mind to predict Cotto by victory. How would I bet though? What are the actual odds?

Vegasinsider.com lists the odds as:

Cotto -365
Clottey + 285

This fight is very close to a pick 'em, so I like the bet on Clottey very much. The one thing that makes me nervous is the fact that this fight is in NYC on the eve of the Puerto Rican Day parade, and MSG will be 99% pro-Cotto. That could influence the judges, as every punch Cotto lands, or probably doesn't even land, will be met with thousands of raucous cheers. If this fight was in Vegas, then it would be a no-brainer bet on Clottey. However, even so, I still like the value of placing a bet on Clottey, despite the virtual home ring advantage for Cotto.

Posted by uatu